人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(1) ：59-68.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.01.007

基于GAM模型的三峡水库运行前后荆江河段水沙变化特征分析

Analysis of Water and Sediment Variation Characteristics in Jingjiang River Reach before and after Operation of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on GAM

丁佳伟 彭玉明 陈燕飞 沈健 黄烈敏
人民珠江2025，Vol.46Issue(1) ：59-68.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.01.007
✕
  • 维普
  • 万方数据

基于GAM模型的三峡水库运行前后荆江河段水沙变化特征分析

Analysis of Water and Sediment Variation Characteristics in Jingjiang River Reach before and after Operation of Three Gorges Reservoir Based on GAM

丁佳伟 1彭玉明 2陈燕飞 1沈健 2黄烈敏2
扫码查看

作者信息

  • 1. 油气地球化学与环境湖北省重点实验室,长江大学资源与环境学院,湖北 武汉 430100
  • 2. 长江水利委员会水文局荆江水文水资源勘测局,湖北 荆州 434000
  • 折叠

摘要

为探究三峡水库运行前后荆江河段水沙的不同变化特征,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和R/S分析法对荆江河段水沙变化趋势进行分析及预测,构建广义加性模型(Generalized Additive Model,GAM)定量化分析三峡出库水沙对荆江河段水沙的影响作用.结果表明:三峡水库运行之后,荆江河段年均含沙量出现大幅下降,且在未来10 a将持续下降,而年均流量变化较小;水沙年内分配极不均匀,峰值均出现在7月.三峡出库水沙对荆江河段含沙量呈现显著的非线性影响,对流量则呈现线性影响;三峡出库水沙对荆江河段水沙影响显著,三峡出库输沙量对荆江河段含沙量的解释度达到了90%,三峡出库流量对荆江河段流量的解释度达到了99%.三峡出库水沙量在不同区间时,荆江河段含沙量随之呈现不同的变化特征,总体表现为三峡出库水沙处于中低水平时,对荆江河段含沙量影响作用更加显著.通过GAM模型,对三峡水库运行前后荆江河段水沙变化过程特征进行了定量化分析研究,为荆江河段水沙研究治理提供科学依据.

Abstract

In order to explore the different water and sediment variation characteristics in Jingjiang River reach before and after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir,the Mann-Kendall trend test method and rescaled range(R/S)analysis method were used to analyze and predict the variation trend of water and sediment in Jingjiang River reach,and the generalized additive model(GAM)was constructed to quantitatively analyze the influence of water and sediment outflows from the Three Gorges Reservoir on the Jingjiang River reach.The results show that:After the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir,the average annual sediment concentration in Jingjiang River reach has decreased significantly and will continue to decrease in the next 10 years,while the average annual discharge has changed little.The distribution of water and sediment is extremely uneven throughout the year,with peaks all occurring in July.The water and sediment outflows from the Three Gorges Reservoir have a significant non-linear effect on the sediment concentration in Jingjiang River reach but a linear effect on the discharge.The water and sediment outflows from the Three Gorges Reservoir have a significant impact on the water and sediment in Jingjiang River reach.The sediment runoff from the Three Gorges Reservoir contributes to 90%of the sediment concentration in Jingjiang River reach,and the outflow discharge from the Three Gorges Reservoir contributes to 99%of the discharge in Jingjiang River reach.When the amount of water and sediment outflows from the Three Gorges Reservoir is in different intervals,the sediment concentration in Jingjiang River reach presents different variation characteristics.In general,when the amount of water and sediment outflows from the Three Gorges Reservoir is at moderate to low levels,its influence on sediment concentration in Jingjiang River reach is more pronounced.This paper uses the GAM to quantitatively analyze the water and sediment variation characteristics in Jingjiang River reach before and after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir,which provides a scientific basis for the study and management of the water and sediment in Jingjiang River reach.

关键词

输沙量/含沙量/流量/趋势/GAM模型/荆江河段

Key words

sediment runoff/sediment concentration/discharge/trend/GAM/Jingjiang River reach

引用本文复制引用

出版年

2025
人民珠江
水利部珠江水利委员会

人民珠江

影响因子：0.406
ISSN：1001-9235
段落导航相关论文