Study on Coal-fired Carbon Emission in Thermal Power Plants based on Linear Regression and BP Neural Network
In view of the general lack of coal ultimate analysis data in coal-fired power plants,based on more than 3 000 pieces of quality data in China's commercial coal quality database,a linear regression model,a BP neural network model and a sparrow search algorithm(SSA)optimized BP neural network model were established.The coal proximate analysis data were fitted in three models to predict the carbon content of the coal ultimate analysis,which was further applied to calculate the carbon emission of coal combustion from stock side,and the relative errors of the carbon content of the coal ultimate analysis pre-dicted by three models were 8.40％,2.51％and 1.30％,respectively.A 1 000 MW power plant unit un-der four typical load conditions of stationary load,fluctuating load,load up and load down was selected to calculate the continuous coal-fired carbon emissions through the proposed three models from stock side,and the carbon emission value was compared with that detected from flue gas side of power plant.The results show that the proposed linear regression,BP neural network and SSA-BP neural network models can predict the carbon content of coal ultimate analysis well.The root mean square error(RMSE)of carbon emissions of coal combustion obtained from flue gas side under three working conditions of low,medium and high sta-tionary loads are 0.35,0.08,0.07 and 0.87,0.37,0.09 as well as 0.23,0.19,0.17.The RMSEs of computational values of three models under three working conditions of load up,load down and load fluctu-ation are 1.00,0.84,0.71 and 1.43,1.24,0.73 as well as 1.33,1.15,0.93.Taking a typical working day of a power plant as an example,the relative deviations between the total daily carbon emissions calcu-lated by three models and the carbon emissions obtained by flue gas detection method are 12.28％,5.52％and 0.22％,respectively.SSA-BP neural network model has the smallest deviation of the coal quality predic-tion and carbon emission calculation result from the measured values on the flue gas side.
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