首页|基于最优MaxEnt模型预测小粒绒盾小蠹的潜在适生区

基于最优MaxEnt模型预测小粒绒盾小蠹的潜在适生区

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小粒绒盾小蠹Xyleborinus saxesenii是一种钻蛀多种林木的高危险性检疫害虫,对我国林业安全造成了极大威胁,研究其潜在适生区分布格局变化规律,对其监测与早期防控策略的制定具有重要参考意义.利用最优MaxEnt模型,以当前获得的593个小粒绒盾小蠹分布位点,预测当前和未来气候情境下小粒绒盾小蠹的全球及中国潜在适生区,再基于适生分布面积增长率和生境质心变化程度比较小粒绒盾小蠹在中国的地理变化.结果显示:小粒绒盾小蠹当前在全球的适生区主要位于欧洲大部分区域、北美西部高山区域和东部沿海、南美东南部沿海、大洋洲东南沿海和亚洲东部;小粒绒盾小蠹当前在我国的潜在适宜区主要分布在胡焕庸线以南,未来气候变化条件下其生境质心将向我国西北方向迁移,建议各地区的林业部门可依据小粒绒盾小蠹的适生等级,尤其是中、高适生区,构建一套"分级管控"的检疫与监测管理措施.
Prediction of Potential Habitat Area of Xyleborinus saxesenii Based on Optimal MaxEnt Model
Asian ambrosia beetle(Xyleborinus saxesenii)is a crucial quarantine insect species worldwide.This beetle creates holes in woody trees and introduces pathogens that cause severe losses due to tree mortality,posing considerable threats to the forestry safety of China.Therefore,accurate prediction of the potential habitat area of X.saxesenii is essential for the relevant forestry department to implement effective monitoring and early control strategies.Using the optimal Max-Ent model,the current and future potential habitat area of X.saxesenii worldwide and in China were predicted via 593 spe-cies distribution records.Meanwhile,the changes in the geographic distribution of X.saxesenii under the abovementioned conditions were exclusively compared by using the distribution area ratio and the degree of habitat centroid transfer in China.The results showed that the global distribution area of X.saxesenii was mainly concentrated in large parts of Eu-rope,the western mountainous regions and east coasts of North America,the southeast coast of South America,the south-east coast of Oceania,and the east of Asia under the current climate scenario.For the potential distribution in China,X.saxesenii was mainly encountered in the south of Hu's line under the current climate scenario,and the habitat centroid gradually moved to the northwest of China under future climate scenarios.In summary,this study contributes to further con-trolling the dispersal of X.saxesenii,especially if there is a middle and high suitable area at the global scale and in China.

Xyleborinus saxeseniiMaxEnt modelpotential suitable distributionhabitat centroidhierarchical control

黄导、张炎、杨斌、李宗波

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西南林业大学生物多样性保护学院,云南省森林灾害预警与控制重点实验室,昆明 650224

西南林业大学西南山地森林资源保育与利用教育部重点实验室,昆明 650224

小粒绒盾小蠹 MaxEnt模型 潜在适生区 生境质心 分级管控

云南省高原特色农业领域科技计划云南省基础研究重点项目兴滇英才支持计划"青年拔尖人才"项目

202302AE090017202101AS070009YNWR-QNBJ-2018-131

2024

四川动物
四川省动物学会,四川省野生动植物保护协会,四川大学,成都大熊猫繁育研究基金会

四川动物

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.521
ISSN:1000-7083
年,卷(期):2024.43(3)
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