The Medium and Short-term Dynamic Tracking Comprehensive Prediction Scheme of MS6.0 Strong Earthquakes in Yunnan and Adjacent Areas
We selected 11 underground fluid precursory indicators and 2 seismological indicators that have passed the R reliability test from January1992 to August 2021 in Yunnan Province.Moreover,we used the mathematical model to comprehensively process the single anomaly index and established the prediction threshold.Specifically,we used the hierarchical early warning model to establish the medium-term(T≤6 months)and short-term(T≤3 months)prediction models.The spatial activity characteristics of small earthquakes before Yunnan MS≥6.0 strong earthquakes from January1992 to August 2021 are studied.The results show that the risk area of MS≥6.0 strong earthquakes is related to the orderly active area of ML≥4.0 in 1～3 years before strong earthquakes.The strong earthquake risk area is located or adjacent in the ML≥4.0 orderly active area.ML≥4.0 orderly activities show three forms at enclosure,dense area,and strip.
MS≥6.0 earthquakescomprehensive predictionshort and medium-term predictionhazard zone prediction
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