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山西省实现碳达峰碳中和路径研究

Research on the Path to Achieve Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality in Shanxi Province

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文章基于STIRPAT模型研究山西省碳达峰碳中和可行性路径,在碳达峰碳中和的大背景下,紧紧围绕国家战略目标深层次开展能源改革综合试点.结合 2011-2022 年山西省的经济社会发展概况、能源消耗情况以及碳排放情况进行了解与分析,并结合相关学者的研究内容和成果,确定了山西省碳排放的主要影响因素及模型指标.在此基础上,得出山西省碳排放的函数方程,结合情景分析法对山西省 2023-2040 年的碳排放量进行预测,从而得到山西省碳排放达峰的峰值范围及峰值出现时间.最后将分析结果与实际情况相结合,提出了山西省碳减排的路径及对策建议.
This article is based on the STIRPAT model to study the feasibility path of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in Shanxi Province.In the context of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality,comprehensive energy reform pilot projects are carried out closely around national strategic goals.Based on the overview of economic and social development, energy consumption,and carbon emissions in Shanxi Province from 2011 to 2020,and combined with the research content and achievements of relevant scholars, the main influencing factors and model indicators of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province have been determined.On this basis,the function equation of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province is derived,and the scenario analysis method is used to predict the carbon emissions in Shanxi Province from 2023 to 2040,in order to obtain the peak range and peak time of carbon emissions in Shanxi Province;Finally,by combining the analysis results with the actual situation,a path and countermeasures for carbon reduction in Shanxi Province were proposed.

董慧君、关海玲、赫煜

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山西晋中理工学院 经济与管理学院,山西 晋中 030600

太原科技大学 经济与管理学院,山西 太原 030000

碳达峰 碳中和 STIRPAT模型

山西省回国留学人员科研项目

2022-158

2024

生产力研究
中国生产力学会 山西省生产力学会

生产力研究

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.492
ISSN:1004-2768
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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