摘要
[目的]云南松是西南地区生态价值极高的特有针叶树种,预测气候变化下其潜在的地理分布对制定科学有效的物种保护策略具有重要意义.[方法]基于筛选的物种分布记录和生物气候变量,通过Maxent模型预测历史时期(末次盛冰期、全新世中期)、当前和未来(2070年代)气候情景下云南松在西南地区(云南、四川、贵州、西藏)的潜在地理分布并分析其主要影响因素.[结果]①当前气候条件下,云南松主要分布于22°～32°N、92°～106°E之间四川南部、贵州西部、西藏东南部和除滇南外的云南大部分地区;②温度相关变量,特别是最冷月最低温(51.6%)和温度季节性(30.1%)是影响云南松分布的关键气候因素;③末次盛冰期至当前时期,云南松适生区减少6.9%并向西南方向、更低纬度迁移,未来气候变暖,其适生区又小幅增加0.9%并向东北方向轻微迁移.[结论]温度相关变量是影响云南松分布的主要环境因子;不同气候时期,除滇南外的云南大部分地区及四川南部是云南松的核心分布区,可作为云南松长期稳定的避难所,而西藏东南部、四川北部和贵州西部一带较当前分布明显减少,可作为未来气候变化下云南松的优先保护区.
Abstract
[Objective]Pinus yunnanensis stands as an indigenous conifer species of paramount ecologi-cal value in the southwest China.Predicting its potential geographical distribution under climate change holds significant importance in formulating scientifically rigorous and effective species conservation strat-egies.[Method]Using species site distrbution data and bioclimatic variables,we employed the Maxent model to predict potential geographic distribution and identify the primary influencing factors of P.yunna-nensis across historical periods(last glacial maximum,middle-Holocene),current and future periods(2070 s)in southwest China,encompassing Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou and Xizang.[Result]①Un-der the current climate scenario,P.yunnanensis was primarily distributed in southern Sichuan,western Guizhou,southeastern Xizang,and across most regions of Yunnan,spanning from 22° to 32° N and 92° to 106° E;②Temperature-related variables,particularly the minimum temperature of the coldest month and temperature seasonality,emerge as pivotal climatic factors influencing the distribution of P.yunna-nensis,explaining 51.6%and 30.1%of the variations in its distribution,respectively;③The suitable habitat area of P.yunnanensis decreased by 6.9%,shifting towards the southwest and lower latitudes from the LGM to the present.However,with future climate warming,the suitable area for P.yunnanensis in-creased slightly by 0.9%and migrated towards the northeast.[Conclusion]Temperature-related vari-ables are the primary factors affecting the distribution of P.yunnanensis.Under different climatic sce-narios,southern Sichuan and most of Yunnan represent regions with the most stable distribution of P.yunnanensis,thus potentially serving as long-term stable refuge.Conversely,the stable distribution of P.yunnanensis in southeastern Xizang,northern Sichuan,and western Guizhou experiences significant de-creases,indicating these areas as priority conservation zones amidst future climate change.
基金项目
云南省地方本科高等学校基础研究联合专项青年项目(2018FH001-104)
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据