Potential Distribution of Pinus yunnanensis in Southwest China under Climate Change
[Objective]Pinus yunnanensis stands as an indigenous conifer species of paramount ecologi-cal value in the southwest China.Predicting its potential geographical distribution under climate change holds significant importance in formulating scientifically rigorous and effective species conservation strat-egies.[Method]Using species site distrbution data and bioclimatic variables,we employed the Maxent model to predict potential geographic distribution and identify the primary influencing factors of P.yunna-nensis across historical periods(last glacial maximum,middle-Holocene),current and future periods(2070 s)in southwest China,encompassing Sichuan,Yunnan,Guizhou and Xizang.[Result]①Un-der the current climate scenario,P.yunnanensis was primarily distributed in southern Sichuan,western Guizhou,southeastern Xizang,and across most regions of Yunnan,spanning from 22° to 32° N and 92° to 106° E;②Temperature-related variables,particularly the minimum temperature of the coldest month and temperature seasonality,emerge as pivotal climatic factors influencing the distribution of P.yunna-nensis,explaining 51.6%and 30.1%of the variations in its distribution,respectively;③The suitable habitat area of P.yunnanensis decreased by 6.9%,shifting towards the southwest and lower latitudes from the LGM to the present.However,with future climate warming,the suitable area for P.yunnanensis in-creased slightly by 0.9%and migrated towards the northeast.[Conclusion]Temperature-related vari-ables are the primary factors affecting the distribution of P.yunnanensis.Under different climatic sce-narios,southern Sichuan and most of Yunnan represent regions with the most stable distribution of P.yunnanensis,thus potentially serving as long-term stable refuge.Conversely,the stable distribution of P.yunnanensis in southeastern Xizang,northern Sichuan,and western Guizhou experiences significant de-creases,indicating these areas as priority conservation zones amidst future climate change.
climate changePinus yunnanensisspecies distribution modelendemic species
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
