四川农业大学学报2024，Vol.42Issue(6) ：1339-1347.DOI:10.16036/j.issn.1000-2650.202311426

基于MaxEnt模型的缺苞箭竹在四川白河国家级自然保护区的潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Fargesia denudatain in Sichuan Baihe National Nature Reserve Based on MaxEnt Model

朱奕莹 毛艳蓉 朱必清 张越 彭振中 刘娟 张笑晨 杨建东
四川农业大学学报2024，Vol.42Issue(6) ：1339-1347.DOI:10.16036/j.issn.1000-2650.202311426
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基于MaxEnt模型的缺苞箭竹在四川白河国家级自然保护区的潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Fargesia denudatain in Sichuan Baihe National Nature Reserve Based on MaxEnt Model

朱奕莹 1毛艳蓉 1朱必清 1张越 1彭振中 1刘娟 1张笑晨 2杨建东2
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作者信息

  • 1. 四川省白河国家级自然保护区服务中心,四川 九寨沟 623400
  • 2. 四川农业大学动物科技学院,成都 611130
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摘要

[目的]预测缺苞箭竹在四川白河国家级自然保护区的潜在适生区,进一步为有效保护缺苞箭竹提供科学依据.[方法]利用MaxEnt和ArcGIS技术,结合缺苞箭竹的地理空间分布信息,探究缺苞箭竹在保护区的适宜性及潜在适生区的地理分布.[结果]基于最大熵模型的缺苞箭竹受试者工作特征曲线AUC值为0.930,模型可信度高.环境变量的重要性分析结果表明,海拔、距水源距离、最冷季平均温度和距公路距离4个环境因子是影响缺苞箭竹在保护区分布的重要环境变量,其适宜范围海拔高度在2 400～3 100 m之间、距水源距离小于1 550m、最冷季平均温度-5～-1℃、距公路距离大于1 050 m.白河保护区缺苞箭竹适生区面积为8 281.89 hm2,占保护区总面积的51.96％.从水平分布来看,缺苞箭竹适生区面积整体呈现自西南向东北递减的趋势,其中太平管护区适宜面积最大,占保护区面积的34.53％,其次为燕子垭11.80％,二道桥最小5.63％.从垂直分布来看,适生区主要分布在海拔2 500～3 000 m之间,占保护区总面积的28.92％.[结论]基于MaxEnt模型,确定了影响缺苞箭竹在保护区分布的重要环境变量,并结合ArcGIS技术很好地预测保护区缺苞箭竹生境的适宜性,研究结果对大熊猫主食竹资源保护和管理具有重要参考价值.

Abstract

[Objective]The aim of this study is to predict potential suitable areas of Fargesia denudatain in Sichuan Baihe National Nature Reserve,thus providing theoretical reference for the scientific protec-tion of F.denudatain.[Method]Based on the distribution points of F.denudatain,we used MaxEnt model and AreCIS software to explore the suitability of Fargesia involucrata in nature reserve,and to pre-dict the distribution pattern of suitable habitat for F.denudatain.[Result]The MaxEnt model could ac-curately predict the spatial distribution of habitat suitability for F.denudatain because the Area Under the Curve(AUC)value was 0.930 based on the maximum entropy model.The analysis of the importance of environmental variables showed that the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of this species included elevation,distance to bodies of water,mean temperature of the coldest quarter,and distance to roads.The appropriate ranges for these factors were 2 500-3 000 m for elevation,＜1 550 m for distance to water source,-5--1 ℃ for mean temperature of the coldest quarter,and＞1 050 m for dis-tance to roads,respectively.The suitable habitats area of F.denudatain was 8 281.89 hm2,accounting for 51.96％of the total area of the Reserve.In terms of horizontal distribution,the overall area of the suit-able habitats for F.denudatain showed a decreasing trend from southwest to northeast.The Taiping Man-agement and Protection Zone was the largest suitable habitat,accounting for 34.53％of the Reserve,fol-lowed by Yanziya at 1 1.80％,and Erdaoqiao at 5.63％.In terms of vertical distribution,the suitable habi-tats were mainly distributed between 2 500-3 000 m above sea level,accounting for 28.92％of the total area of the Reserve.[Conclusion]Based on the MaxEnt model,we have identified significant environ-mental variables that restrict the distribution of the F.denudatain in the Reserve.we have effectively pre-dicted the distribution pattern of its suitable habitats in Sichuan Baihe National Nature Reserve by com-bining ArcGIS technology.These findings have substantial reference value for the conservation and man-agement of staple bamboo resources for giant pandas.

关键词

缺苞箭竹/MaxEnt模型/环境因子/潜在适生区

Key words

Fargesia denudata/maximum entropy model/environmental factors/potential suitable areas

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出版年

2024
四川农业大学学报
四川农业大学

四川农业大学学报

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.657
ISSN：1000-2650
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