Historical Characteristics and Future Trends of Extreme Rainfall Events in Fujian Province During 1960-2100
Climate change increases the frequency of extreme rainfall events around the world,and ex-treme rainfalls lead to secondary natural disasters such as floods,landslides and debris flows.It is of great importance to study the spatial and temporal evolution model of extreme rainfalls to improve the adaptation to climate change.Taking Fujian province as the research area and the historical period(1960-2020)and future period(2020-2100)as the research periods,this study extracted extreme rainfall events with the fixed threshold method of the 99 th quantile and explored the spatial distribution pattern and trend of extreme rainfalls under various emission scenarios in Fujian province with Sen-MK trend analysis method.The results indicate that:in terms of frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events,the distribution of extreme rainfalls in the research area presents a decreasing trend from the southeast coast to the inland during the historical period,while the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls in the whole region show an increas-ing trend;the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls in Fujian province increase in different degrees under different emission scenarios in future period,among which the results in SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios are very similar,while the extreme rainfalls under SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario change obviously,with an sig-nificant increase in frequency and intensity,especially after 2060.Therefore,it is significant to evaluate the dis-tribution characteristics and trends of extreme rainfalls under future climate scenarios in order to effectively prevent various disasters that may be caused by extreme rainfall events.
Fujian provinceextreme rainfallquantilespatial and temporalthreshold
万方数据
