首页|成渝地区双城经济圈高质量发展:水平测度、影响因素及其趋势预测

成渝地区双城经济圈高质量发展:水平测度、影响因素及其趋势预测

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构建高质量发展水平测度指标体系,采用熵权-TOPSIS法对2011-2020年成渝双城经济圈经济发展质量进行评估与多维度分析,在此基础上运用空间杜宾模型对双城经济高质量发展的影响因素进行研究,然后利用灰色模型预测并比较2021-2035年双城经济圈与京津冀、长三角和粤港澳大湾区的高质量发展趋势.结果表明:(1)双城经济圈高质量发展整体水平逐步提升,但区域差距较大,各维度发展水平差异明显;(2)数字经济、新型城镇化、金融发展等因素对于双城经济圈高质量发展影响不同,且有不同的空间效应;(3)未来15年内双城经济圈高质量发展水平将稳步提升,与其他三个城市群的差距逐步缩小.
High-quality Development of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle:Level Measurement,Influencing Factors and Its Trend Prediction
Constructing a high-quality development level measurement index system and using the entropy weight-TOPSIS method to evaluate and conduct multi-dimensional analysis on the economic development quality of Cheng-du-Chongqing economic circle from 2011 to 2020,and on this basis the authors use the spatial Dubin model to study the influencing factors of the high-quality development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle,and then they use the grey model to predict and compare the high-quality development trends among Chengdu-Chongqing econom-ic circle,the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area during 2021-2035.The results show that the overall level of high-quality development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle has gradually been improved,but the regional gap is large,and the development level of each dimension is significantly different,that the digital economy,new urbanization,financial development and other factors have different impacts on the high-quality development of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle with different spatial effects,and that the high-quality development level of Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle will be steadily improved,and the gap with the other three urban agglomerations will be gradually narrowed in the next 15 years.

Chengdu-Chongqing economic circlehigh-quality developmentinfluencing factorsprediction

苟兴朝、杨继瑞

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长江师范学院财经学院,重庆 408100

四川大学经济学院,四川成都 610065

成渝地区双城经济圈 高质量发展 影响因素 预测

重庆市社会科学规划重点项目重庆市教育科学规划重点课题

2021NDZD072021-GX-030

2024

西华师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)
西华师范大学

西华师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.185
ISSN:1672-9684
年,卷(期):2024.(2)
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