首页|农村夫妻就业分化对生育意愿的影响

农村夫妻就业分化对生育意愿的影响

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生育属于夫妻共同决策,探究农村夫妻就业分化引致的生育意愿变动及其内在机理,可能为中国低生育率的破解提供新视角.基于2014 年和2018 年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,实证检验农村夫妻就业分化对生育意愿的影响.结果表明,农村夫妻就业分化会降低其生育意愿,与务农型夫妻相比,兼业型夫妻和非农型夫妻的平均生育意愿分别减少0.037 个和 0.054 个.使用CMP模型和Tobit模型进行稳健性检验后,结论依旧成立.就业分化对35 岁以下、村庄宗族氛围不浓厚的农村夫妻生育意愿的抑制作用更强.机制检验表明,抚育能力削弱和传统生育观念弱化是农村夫妻就业分化导致生育意愿下降的重要原因.农村夫妻就业分化对其生育二孩和生育三孩的行为亦存在显著负向影响.因此,包容性生育政策改革需着重关注农村夫妻的抚育成本和时间顾虑,并通过营造新型生育文化,以激发农村夫妻的生育动力和情感需求.
The Effect of Employment Differentiation of Rural Couples on Fertility Intentions
As fertility is a joint decision of couples,exploring the changes in fertility intentions and the underlying mechanisms caused by employment differentiation of rural couples may pro-vide a new perspective to solve the problem of low fertility in China.Using data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)for the years 2014 and 2018,this paper empirically investigates the effect of employment differentiation of rural couples on their fertility intentions.The results show that employment differentiation of rural couples reduces their fertility intentions.Compared with farming couples,part-time and non-farming couples have 0.037 and 0.054 fewer fertility intentions on average.The above findings still hold after robustness tests using the CMP model and Tobit model.Employment differentiation had a stronger inhibitory effect on fertility intentions of rural couples under 35 years old and those with a weak village clan atmosphere.Mechanistic tests suggest that weakened parenting ability and weakened traditional fertility attitudes are important reasons for the decline in rural couples'fertility intentions due to employment differ-entiation.Employment differentiation among rural couples also has a significant negative effect on their behavior toward having two and three children.Therefore,inclusive fertility policy reform should focus on both the cost and time concerns of rural couples in raising children,as well as creating a new fertility culture in order to stimulate the fertility motivation and emotional needs of rural couples.

Fertility IntentionsRural CouplesEmployment DifferentiationChild-Rearing AbilityTraditional Fertility Attitudes

罗明忠、林玉婵、柯杰升

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华南农业大学 经济与管理学院,广东 广州 510642

生育意愿 农村夫妻 就业分化 抚育能力 生育观念

国家社科基金重大项目国家自然科学基金面上项目

23&ZD11272373043

2024

人口与发展
北京大学

人口与发展

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.626
ISSN:1674-1668
年,卷(期):2024.30(1)
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