Study on the Bias of Population Sampling Data:Measurement,Cause and Correction
This paper uses the difference between the average annual growth rate of sampling and the average annual growth rate of a census to measure the bias of population sampling data,which is suitable for cross-city and cross-year comparisons of a large number of observa-tions.On this basis,a regression model is constructed to study the causes of the bias of popula-tion sampling data.It is found that the administrative hierarchy of a city has a significant effect on the bias of population sampling data,which is mainly reflected as the higher the administrative hierarchy,the stronger the underestimation bias.Economic development,industrial structure,government intervention,and public services also significantly affect the bias of population sampling data,while the impact of population in the census year on the bias of population sampling data is not significant.Furthermore,an"ex-ante"correction strategy for the bias of population sampling data is proposed.The determination of the average annual growth rate of the census is examined by regression analysis,and the fitted value obtained can be used to calculate the population of subsequent non-census years.Research in this paper shows the important methodological value and helps to improve the quality of non-census-year population data.
Population SamplingBiasAdministrative HierarchyPopulation Census
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