An Event History Analysis of the Changes in the Risk of First Childhood for Married Women under the Background of China's Economic System Reform
The reform of China's economic system has a profound impact on the entire society,and may also affect the time interval between women's first marriage and first childbirth.However,there is little intensive research on this issue.This article is based on data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)2018 and uses discrete time Logit models and COX semi-parametric models to analyze the risk changes of married women's first childbirth since the economic system reform.The interval between marriage and childbirth has been in four different periods:the early stage of reform and opening up,the comprehensive reform and opening up,the early stage of market economy,and the development stage of market economy.Research has found that in the early stages of reform and opening up after 1978,the risk of first childbirth among married women in cities significantly decreased by 21.2%.During the comprehensive exploration period of reform and opening up,the overall risk of first childbirth among married women was significantly reduced by 32.3%.In the early stages of the market economy and the development stage of the market economy,the risk of first marriage for married women significantly decreased by 57.1%and 71.4%,respectively.In addition,the cohort effect of the risk of first birth is significant,that is,as the birth cohort continues to get older,their risk of first birth gradually increases.After excluding the cohort effect,the effect of their first childbirth risk changing with economic system reform remains significant.
Economic System ReformThe Interval between First Marriage and First Child-birthSurvival Analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
