Research on the Financing Scale and Guarantee Mechanism for Long-term Care of"Double-stricken"Older People in Rural Areas
In 2020,the rural population aged 60 and above accounted for 23.81%of the total rural population in China.In 2021,the proportion of rural older people facing the dilemma of losing their ability to take care of themselves was 26.4%.In contrast,there were more people with limited autonomy and cognitive impairment,accounting for 37.77%and 36.5%,respectively.Due to limitations in income levels and family care capabilities,improving the care mechanism for older people in rural areas with double difficulties has become a major challenge that urgently needs to be solved in the development of the country's elderly care industry,and it is also an important issue that urgently needs to be addressed in current rural elderly care policies.This article uses the Markov model,combined with data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)from 2013 to 2015,to estimate the population size and structure of"double-stricken"older people in rural areas in the next 30 years.It also calculates the care needs and social assistance costs for these older individuals.The research findings demonstrate that the number of older people with disabilities in China shows a reverse"U"shaped growth trend.It reaches its peak in 2021 with 17.87 million older people with disabilities in rural areas,and then experiences a slight decline to 19.61 million people by 2051.The care needs and social assistance costs for the"double-stricken"older people in rural areas also increase accordingly.Under the proposed plan,the scale of social assistance costs for the"double-stricken"older people in rural areas will rise from 29.3 billion yuan in 2021 to 58.1 billion yuan in 2051.However,this cost scale accounts for a relatively small proportion of fiscal expenditure.Based on the above results,this article proposes to address the contradiction between rural elderly care services and the construction of China's elderly security system by taking meeting the needs of elderly care services in rural areas as the starting point.It is suggested to establish a multi-level funding system for the care of"double-stricken"older individuals in rural areas.Rural elderly care assistance is a policy choice for the care needs of"double-stricken"older individuals in rural areas.
Rural PovertyOlder People with DisabilitiesCare AssistanceFundraising Scale
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
