"Demand-Based Supply":Measuring the Demand and Supply Scale of Childcare Services from 2024 to 2050——Take Shanghai as an Example
The situation of declining birthrate objectively requires a demand-oriented promotion of childcare services'supply.The ARIMA-LSTM model improved by the Bootstrapping is used to calculate the population size and birth rate of Shanghai from 2024 to 2050,and then examine the demand and supply scale of kindergartens and childcare institutions under the dynamically changing enrollment rate.The results show that:the support gap is huge,and the supply and demand gap has experienced the process of"starting-rapid growth-steady decline".In the initial period(2024-2032),the average supply and demand gaps for kindergartens and childcare institutions are 6200 and 35800,respectively,and 310 kindergartens and 298 childcare institu-tions should be supplied.During the rapid growth period(2033-2042),the supply and demand gap for kindergartens and childcare institutions is 24200 and 102400,respectively.On the basis of the first phase,900 classes and 619 childcare institutions need to be provided.During the stable decline period(2043-2050),the supply and demand gap for kindergartens and child-care institutions dropped to 23600 and 109400,respectively.If the gap has been filled in the second stage,there is no need to increase supply.The continued release of preschool education provides a foundation for kindergartens to set up childcare services.However,the shortage of teachers and financial funds,as well as the pressure from the growth of the scale of childcare institutions,are the keys to restricting the effective supply of childcare services.
Population ProjectionChildcare DemandChildcare Service ProvisionChildcare InstitutionsPreschool Education
万方数据
