Who Would Prefer to Delay Retirement under Flexible Retirement System?——Micro-simulation Based on Option Value Model
Under the background of population aging,it is a general trend to delay the retirement age and establish a flexible retirement system.Pension incentives are an important part of a flexible retirement system.This paper establishes an option value model and a pension benefit and reward-penalty factor model.Based on the data of the Chinese Household Income Project Survey(CHIP2018),we simulate the peak pension value,option value,and internal rate of return of different population characteristics.The results show that total pension wealth"first increases and then decreases"with the retirement age,and the peak age for males is earlier than that for females.Introducing a pension"reward and punishment"mechanism helps raise the optimal retirement age and encourage workers to delay retirement.Considering the heterogeneity of leisure preferences,male enrollees are more inclined to retire early,while female enrollees,especially those with higher incomes,are more willing to delay retirement.Risk-averse enrollees are more likely to retire early.It is suggested to establish a flexible retirement age policy system as soon as possible to increase workers'choices and institutional flexibility.Introduce actuarial adjustment factors to build pension reward and punishment mechanism,and improve the pension insurance benefit calculation and payment method.
Delayed RetirementPension WealthOption Value Model
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