Land Finance,Marketization and Fertility Intention of the Reproductive Age Population——Empirical Evidence from the Chinese General Social Survey(CGSS)
Land finance and market-oriented reform are the two main lines of understanding China's socio-economic development in the near to medium term.They not only shape and lead the macroeconomic operation and social structural changes,but also profoundly change the behavior and decision-making of micro individuals.This article uses Chinese General Social Survey and combines various macro data to explore the impact and significance of land finance and market-oriented reforms on the fertility intention of people.Research has found that:(1)Local government land finance has had a negative impact on the fertility willingness of people of childbearing age by raising housing prices,suppressing government expenditure on people's livelihood,hindering the development of private economy,and reducing total factor productivity.(2)Marketization is an economic system that is conducive to resource allocation and social welfare growth.It can effectively enhance the social trust and life satisfaction of people of child-bearing age,and thus have a positive incentive effect on their willingness to have children.(3)Under the interactive influence of land finance and market-oriented reform,local government land finance behavior suppresses the promotion effect of market-oriented reform on fertility intention,and leads to a continuous decline in fertility intention.The article believes that China has entered a"Wagner acceleration period",and the issue of low fertility calls on the govern-ment to timely change the development strategy of investment oriented finance,allowing the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation.
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