首页|养老服务供给与需求耦合协调水平研究——基于空间计量的视角

养老服务供给与需求耦合协调水平研究——基于空间计量的视角

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养老服务供给与需求的耦合协调发展对缓解我国日益加剧的人口老龄化问题具有重要意义.借助熵值法、耦合协调模型及空间计量方法,利用 2013-2020 年我国 29 个省市的面板数据,得出省域养老服务供给与养老服务需求的综合发展指数,并探究了养老服务供需协调发展的时空特征及影响因素.结果表明,养老服务存在明显的供需失衡现象;养老服务供需耦合协调度整体上呈现为东、中部较高,东北部次之,西部最低的地域特征.全国层面空间杜宾模型的回归结果表明,互联网的普及与地域老龄化水平对耦合协调度分别具有显著的负向与正向影响,政府参与的影响更多体现在对邻近省份的溢出效应,失业率的影响不显著.异质性检验结果表明,上述驱动因素对不同地理分区的影响机制存在显著差异.基于此,应当在促进养老服务供给高质高效发展的基础上,因地制宜实施异质性养老政策,真正落实"老有所依".
Research on the Supply and Demand Coupling Coordination of the Elderly Services:Based on the Perspective of Spatial Econometrics
The coupled and coordinated development of the supply and demand of elderly services is significant for alleviating the growing problem of population aging in China.Based on the entropy method,the coupling coordination model,and the spatial Durbin model,using the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 2013 to 2020,the comprehensive development indexes of the supply and demand of elderly services at the provincial level were calculated,and the spatial-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of the coordinated development of supply and demand of elderly services were investigated.The conclusion shows that there is an obvious imbalance between supply and demand of elderly services;the coupling coordination degree of the eastern and central provinces is significantly higher than the northeastern and western provinces.The regression results of the spatial Durbin model show that the penetration of the Internet and the level of regional aging have significant negative and positive impacts on the coupling coordination degree,respectively.The impact of government participation is mainly reflected in the spillover effect on neighboring provinces,and the impact of the unemployment rate is not significant.The results of the heterogeneity test show that the above driving factors have significant differences in the impact mechanism across different geographical divisions.In view of this,on the basis of promoting the quality and efficiency of the supply of elderly services,relevant policies should be formulated according to different local conditions to truly implement"Aged with Support".

Elderly Service SupplyElderly Service DemandCoupling Coordination DegreeSpatial Durbin ModelRegional Heterogeneity

黎昌贵、韩照宇、朱少鹏

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桂林理工大学 商学院,广西 桂林 541000

养老服务供给 养老服务需求 耦合协调度 空间杜宾模型 区域异质性

广西科技计划项目国家自科地区基金项目广西研究生教育创新计划项目

2020GXNSFAA15916672064008YCSW2023357

2024

人口与发展
北京大学

人口与发展

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.626
ISSN:1674-1668
年,卷(期):2024.30(5)