The Effect of Fertility Policy Adjustments on Urban Resilience in the Yellow River Basin
Coordinating the relationship between population,economic and social development,resources,and the environment is crucial for building resilient cities and achieving high-quality regional development.This paper uses the selective two-child policy implemented in 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment and,taking into account the effects of the universal two-child policy,establishes an analytical framework that includes two pathways of influence:unemployed population and the older and infant populations.After using machine learning algorithms to assess the resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin,a difference-in-differences model is subsequently employed to explore and verify the effects and mechanisms of fertility policy adjustments on urban resilience.The results show that fertility policy adjustments can reduce the resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin in the short term,and this negative effect evolves in three stages over time.Mechanism tests indicate that while fertility policy adjustments do not significantly increase the number of unemployed women in cities,they affect urban resilience by increasing the older and infant populations.
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