人口老龄化对经济增长的影响日益扩大,蓬勃兴起的数字化趋势能否缓解老龄化对高质量增长带来的冲击,正成为重要话题.基于2007-2021 年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,从企业全要素生产率视角实证检验了人口老龄化的经济影响,以及数字化转型在其中的调节作用.研究发现:(1)人口老龄化与企业TFP呈现显著的倒 U 型曲线关系,该结论在一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立.(2)调节检验结果表明,数字化转型会正向调节老龄化与TFP的曲线关系.高数字化转型水平下,二者曲线形态会更为陡峭、拐点右移、整体水平也更高.(3)异质性检验发现,人口老龄化对企业TFP的非线性影响在劳动密集型企业、非高新技术企业及认知型企业中更为明显.而数字化转型水平越高,越有利于这些企业抓住老龄化机遇,实现更大的生产率提升.研究结论为积极应对人口老龄化和扎实推进数字化转型的政策协同提供了有益的经验证据和政策启示.
Demographics,Digitalization,and Total Factor Productivity of Enterprises
Population plays an extremely important role in economic development,and with the increasingly severe aging situation in China,its impact on economic growth is receiving increasing attention.In this process,the flourishing digital transformation also plays an indispensable role.Based on the data of A-share listed companies in China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2007 to 2021,this article empirically tests the economic impact of population aging and the moderating role of digital transformation from the perspective of total factor productivity of enterprises.Research has found that:(1)there is a significant inverted U-shaped curve relationship between population aging and corporate TFP,which is still valid after a series of robustness tests.(2)The results of the adjustment test indicate that at a high level of digitization transformation,the above inverted U-shaped relationship curve shape will be steeper,the inflection point will shift to the right,and the overall level will also be higher.(3)Heteroge-neity testing found that the non-linear impact of population aging on enterprise TFP is more pronounced in labor-intensive enterprises,non-high-tech enterprises,and cognitive enter-prises,while high-tech enterprises still exhibit a linear promoting effect.The higher the level of digital transformation,the more conducive it is for these enterprises to seize the opportunities of aging and achieve greater productivity improvement.The conclusion of this article provides useful empirical evidence and policy inspiration for actively addressing population aging and promoting policy synergy in digital transformation.
Population AgingTotal Factor ProductivityDigital TransformationNonlinear Relationship
万方数据
维普
