With the continuous warming of the global climate,the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have skyrocketed across the country,causing serious impacts on the economic operation system,resulting in increasing pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure,significant fluctuations in the financial market,intensified cross-infection of fiscal risks and financial risks,exacerbating systemic risks in the banking system,and seriously threatening national economic security.By constructing a systematic banking risk index based on China administrative governance mechanism and economic development characteristics,this study verifies the general laws and action mechanisms of climate change on systemic banking risks from the perspective of local governments'debt intermediary effect.The research results show that climate change will significantly lead to systemic risks in China banking system with a time lag of 2-3 years for risk accumulation effect;and climate change has a significant impact on the systemic banking risks and local government debt risks in provinces with higher and lower legalization levels,while the intermediary effect of local government debt is significant in provinces with lower legalization levels and is not significant in provinces with higher legalization levels;both weak and strong climate change impacts will lead to systemic banking risks,and the mediating effect of local government debt is significant with significant differences.Accordingly,relative countermeasures for addressing systemic banking risks are proposed from the aspects of promoting the transformation of green economy and advancing fiscal system reform.
关键词
气候变化/银行系统性风险/地方政府债务
Key words
climate change/banking systemic risk/local government debt
维普
万方数据