2016-2022年北京市其他感染性腹泻发病影响因素及趋势分析
Influencing factors and trends of the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Beijing,2016-2022
高群 1孙鑫贵1
作者信息
摘要
目的 了解新型冠状病毒感染疫情防控中公共卫生和社会措施(PHSMs)对北京市其他感染性腹泻发病的影响,为该传染病的防控工作提供参考.方法 收集2016年1月—2022年5月北京市其他感染性腹泻报告病例数据,分别应用季节性ARIMA模型和蒙特卡洛模拟预测在未发生新型冠状病毒感染疫情和未采取禁止堂食的情况下北京市其他感染性腹泻的发病情况.比较各年同时期的实际报告病例数与预测病例数,分析PHSMs对发病情况的影响.结果 2020年1月—2022年5月北京市其他感染性腹泻发病情况较新型冠状病毒感染疫情发生前显著下降.模型结果显示,2020年1月—2022年5月每年报告病例数分别是假设未发生新型冠状病毒感染疫情的35.3％、51.4％和36.3％.实施禁止堂食措施后,2022年5月的实际报告病例数比预测值下降了 43.4％.结论 PHSMs能显著降低其他感染性腹泻的发病,禁止堂食的措施进一步降低了发病率.
Abstract
Objective To evaluate the influence of public health and social measures(PHSMs)on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Beijing during periods of the prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19),so as to provide references for the prevention and control of other infectious diarrhea.Methods The records of other infectious diarrhea in Beijing from January 2016 to May 2022 were collected.The seasonal ARIMA model and Monte Carlo simulation were used to predict the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Beijing without COVID-19 epidemic and without the ban on dine-in.The actual number of reported cases were compared with the predicted number of cases in the same period of each year to assess the impact of PHSMs on the incidence of other infectious diarrhea.Results The incidence of other infectious diarrhea from January 2020 to May 2022 was significantly lower than that before the COVID-19 pandemic.The result of the model simulation showed that the annual number of reported cases from January 2020 to May 2022 was 35.3％,51.4％and 36.3％of the predicted annual numbers of reported cases under the assumption of no COVID-19 pandemic,respectively.After implementation of the ban on dine-in,the number of reported cases in May 2022 reduced by 43.4％comparing to the predicted case number.Conclusions PHSMs reduced significantly the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in Beijing,and the ban on dine-in reduced the incidence in further.
关键词
其他感染性腹泻/公共卫生和社会措施/禁止堂食Key words
Other infectious diarrhea/Public health and social measures/Ban on dine-in引用本文复制引用
基金项目
首都卫生发展科研专项项目(2022-1G-4261)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据