2012-2022年北京市石景山区传染病自动预警系统运行情况分析
Performance of China infectious diseases automated-alert and response system in Shijingshan district of Beijing,2012-2022
吴劲 1孙立昆 1任丽君 1白云1
作者信息
- 1. 100043,北京市石景山区疾病预防控制中心
- 折叠
摘要
目的 评价2012-2022年北京市石景山区传染病自动预警系统运行情况,为传染病智慧化预警多点触发机制的建立提供参考.方法 利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统中的传染病自动预警系统,收集石景山区2012-2022年传染病自动预警系统监测数据,并进行描述性分析.结果 2012-2022年北京市石景山区传染病自动预警系统发出涉及29种传染病的预警信号4 555条,响应4 555条,响应率100.00％;平均响应时间为3.23 h,11年间预警信号数先呈波动性下降趋势,2022年急剧上升;固定阈值法、时间模型和时空模型及时响应率分别为99.75％、97.37％和95.90％;3种预警模式暴发事件阳性率不同,暴发事件涉及病种为麻疹、肺结核、流行性感冒和手足口病,表明传染病自动预警系统对麻疹、肺结核、流行性感冒和手足口病预测准确率较高.结论 北京市石景山区传染病自动预警系统运行较稳定,预警信号及时响应率高,但仍需进一步完善优化,切实提高传染病监测预警系统的敏感性和及时性.
Abstract
Objective To evaluate the performance of China infectious disease automated-alert and response system(CIDARS)in Shijingshan district of Beijing from 2012 to 2022,so as to provide reference for the construction of an intelligent multi-point triggering mechanism for early warning of infectious diseases.Methods The surveillance data of early warning for infectious diseases in Shijingshan district from 2012 to 2022 were collected from CIDARS in China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and the descriptive analysis was conducted.Results From 2012 to 2022,CIDARS in Shijingshan district issued 4 555 warning messages involving 29 infectious diseases.All 4 555 messages were responded and the rate of response rate was 100.00％.The average response time was 3.23 hours.During the period of 11 years,the numbers of warning messages showed a fluctuating downward tendency and a sharp elevation in 2022.The timely response rates of the fixed threshold method,time model and spatiotemporal model were 99.75％,97.37％and 95.90％,respectively.The positive rates of the outbreak events by the three early warning models were different.The outbreaks involved measles,tuberculosis,influenza and hand,foot,and mouth disease,indicating that the automatic early warning system of infectious diseases was accuracy in predicting measles,tuberculosis,influenza and hand,foot,and mouth disease.Conclusions CIDARS operated stably in Shijingshan district and the timely response rate to warning messages was high.However,further improvement and optimization should be applied for effectively improvement of the sensitivity and timeliness of the system.
关键词
传染病/自动预警系统/预警响应Key words
Infectious diseases/Automated-alert/Warning response引用本文复制引用
基金项目
2021年度北京市重大疫情防治重点专科流行病学建设项目()
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据