2010-2021年北京市朝阳区四类慢性病早死概率及疾病负担分析
Analysis on probability of premature death and disease burden of four main chronic diseases in Chaoyang district of Beijing,2010-2021
孟海英 1宋娟 1和丽 1郭享 1黄立勇 1齐啸1
作者信息
- 1. 100021,北京市朝阳区疾病预防控制中心
- 折叠
摘要
目的 了解2010-2021年北京市朝阳区四类慢性病(心脑血管疾病、恶性肿瘤、糖尿病和慢性呼吸系统疾病)早死概率、疾病负担情况及变化趋势,为慢性病防控策略制定提供参考依据.方法 收集2010-2021年北京市朝阳区居民死亡登记资料和人口资料,计算四类慢性病粗死亡率、标化死亡率、早死概率、早死寿命损失年(year of life lost,YLL),通过平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change,AAPC)来分析各指标的变化趋势.结果 2010-2021年朝阳区四类慢性病死亡数占总死亡数的82.74％;四类慢性病粗死亡率呈上升趋势(AAPC=2.12％,P＜0.001),男性四类慢性病粗死亡率高于女性;总人群和女性标化死亡率呈下降趋势(总人群AAPC=-3.15％,女性AAPC=-2.27％,P均＜0.05).2010-2021年朝阳区总人群和女性早死概率均呈现下降趋势(总人群AAPC=-1.19％,女性AAPC=-2.57％,P均＜0.05),总人群、男性早死概率距离"健康中国2030"早死概率目标值还有一定空间.2010-2021年朝阳区四类慢性病YLL逐年增长,总人群和男性YLL率逐年上升(总人群AAPC=1.11％,男性AAPC=1.72％,P均＜0.001),男女性标化YLL率均逐年下降(男性AAPC=-1.98％,女性AAPC=-3.63％,P均＜0.05).结论 朝阳区四类慢性病早死危害依然较大,距离实现2030年目标还有一定距离,建议进一步加强慢性病综合防控,采取有针对性的干预措施,降低人群尤其是男性四类慢性病造成的早死危害,促进"健康中国2030"目标的实现.
Abstract
Objective To understand the probability of premature death and disease burden of four main chronic diseases(cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases,malignant tumors,diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases)among residents in Chaoyang district of Beijing from 2010 to 2021,and to provide reference for the formulation of chronic disease prevention and control strategies.Methods The death registration data and population data of residents in Chaoyang District of Beijing from 2010 to 2021 were used to calculate the crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate,probability of premature death and year of life lost(YLL)of four main chronic diseases,and the trend of each indicator was analyzed by the average annual percent change(AAPC)using Joinpoint soft.Results From 2010 to 2021,the proportion of deaths caused by four main chronic diseases in Chaoyang district reached 82.74％.The crude mortality rate of four main chronic diseases showed an upward trend(AAPC=2.12％,P＜0.001).Crude mortality rate for men was higher than women.The standardized mortality rates for total population and women were showing decreasing trend(tatal AAPC=-3.15％,women AAPC=-2.27％,all P＜0.05).From 2010 to 2021,the probabilities of premature death for total population and women were showing decreasing trend(tatal AAPC=-1.19％,women AAPC=-2.57％,all P＜0.05).There were still certain space between probabilities of early death of the total population and men and the target values in"Healthy China 2030".From 2010 to 2021,the YLLs of four main chronic diseases in Chaoyang district had been increasing year by year,the YLLs rates for total population and men had been increasing year by year(tatal AAPC=1.11％,men AAPC=1.72％,all P＜0.001),while the standardized YLLs rates for men and women had been decreasing year by year(men AAPC=-1.98％,women AAPC=-3.63％,all P＜0.05).Conclusions The harm of premature death from four main chronic diseases in Chaoyang district are still serious,and there are certain space for achieving the goal in 2030.It is recommended to further strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control of chronic diseases and to adopt targeted intervention measures for reducing the harm of premature death,especially for men,and promoting the achievement of the"Healthy China 2030"goal.
关键词
四类慢性病/粗死亡率/早死概率/早死寿命损失年Key words
Four main chronic diseases/Crude mortality rate/Probability of premature death/Year of life lost引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据