2012-2023年渝东北地区手足口病流行病学特征分析与建模预测
Epidemiological characteristics and model prediction of hand-feet-mouth disease in northeast area of Chongqing municipal,2012-2023
袁丹 1龙江 2李婷婷 2裴迎新 3吴晓旻 4牛艳5
作者信息
- 1. 100050,北京,中国现场流行病学培训项目;404100,重庆市万州区疾病预防控制中心
- 2. 重庆市疾病预防控制中心
- 3. 中国疾病预防控制中心
- 4. 武汉市疾病预防控制中心
- 5. 中国疾病预防控制中心;传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室
- 折叠
摘要
目的 分析2012-2023年渝东北地区手足口病(hand-feet-mouth disease,HFMD)流行病学特征并建模预测发病趋势,为HFMD防控提供依据.方法 通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统获取渝东北地区HFMD数据,描述三间分布特征,构建季节性差分自回归移动平均(SARIMA)模型并预测.结果 2012-2023年渝东北地区共报告HFMD病例122 662例,年均报告发病率123.11/10万.2012-2018年报告发病率呈上升趋势,2018-2023年波动较大.2012-2019年和2021年发病呈季节性双峰分布,2020、2022和2023年均呈单峰分布.巫山县、梁平区和开州区报告发病率较高.报告病例主要为5岁以下(占89.76％)、散居儿童(占68.46％),1岁年龄组报告发病率最高且呈上升趋势.实验室诊断HFMD病例(7 113例)中其他肠道病毒阳性占52.06％,2018-2023年经实验室诊断的重症病例主要为其他肠道病毒阳性(占88.10％).用HFMD数据构建2个SARIMA模型,模型SARIMA(0,0,1)(2,0,1)12的预测性能更好,预测2024年HFMD发病出现2个峰(4-7月和10-12月).结论 2020年以来HFMD报告发病趋势和主要感染病原与2020年前相比有较大变化,需加强监测预警,加强婴幼儿HFMD防控宣教,细化其他肠道病毒检测研究,SARIMA模型预测结果可为HFMD防控策略的制定提供依据.
Abstract
Objective Analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand-feet-mouth disease(HFMD)in northeast area of Chongqing municipal from 2012 to 2023,and construct a model to predict the incidence trend,providing a reference for the prevention and control of HFMD.Methods HFMD data were obtained from the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System to analyze its distribution.The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model was constructed to predict future trends.Results From 2012 to 2023,a total of 122 662 cases of HFMD were reported,with an annual average incidence rate of 123.11 per 100 000.The reported incidence showed an increasing trend in 2012-2018 and fluctuated greatly in 2018-2023.The incidence showed seasonal bimodal distribution in 2012-2019 and 2021,and unimodal distribution in 2020,2022-2023.Higher incidence rates were reported in Wushan county,Liangping district,and Kaizhou district.Most reported cases were among children under 5 years old(89.76％),with scattered children accounting for 68.46％.1-year-old age group had the highest incidence rate and showed an increasing trend.Among the laboratory-diagnosed cases(7113 cases),52.06％were positive for other enteroviruses,and the majority severe cases diagnosed by the laboratory in 2018-2023 were positive for other enteroviruses(88.10％).Two SARIMA models were constructed using HFMD data.The prediction performance of model SARIMA(0,0,1)(2,0,1)12 showed better predictive performance.This model predicts two incidence peaks of HFMD in 2024:one from April to July and another from October to December.Conclusions Since 2020,there has been a significant change in both the reported incidence trend and the main infectious agents of HFMD compared to previous years.It is necessary to strengthen surveillance and early warning,strengthen prevention and control education of HFMD in infants,refine other enterovirus detection studies,and prevention and control strategies can be formulated based on the prediction result of SARIMA model.
关键词
手足口病/流行病学/SARIMA模型/预测Key words
Hand-feet-mouth disease/Epidemiology/Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model/Prediction引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据