Quantitative Analysis of The Effect of Climate Change and Human Activities on Streamflow
In order to make the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow,Zhangfang hydrological station and Xidayang reservoir hydrological station upstream watersheds were selected as research object in Daqing river basin.Based on the hydro-meteorological data during 1957-2000 years,accumulated departure analysis and Mann-Kendall methods,the runoff time series are divided into three periods:reference period 1957-1958 (Ⅰ period),evaluation period 1969-1979 (Ⅱ period) and 1980-2000(Ⅲ period).Separation evaluation method was applied to quantify the respective contribution of climate change and human activities to the streamflow of the area.Significantly decreasing trend can be identified in the observed streamflow data of the two watersheds:Human activities contributed 20％ (Ⅱ period) and 24％ (Ⅲ period) reduction in the streamflow of Zhangfang upstream watershed,and climate change' s contribution rate reached 80％ (Ⅱ period) and 76％ (Ⅲ period),respectively;Human activities contributed 13％ (Ⅱ period) and 18％ (Ⅲ period) reduction in the streamflow of Xidayang upstream watershed,and climate change' s contribution rate reached 87％ (Ⅱ period) and 82％ (Ⅲ period),respectively.Climate change was the main contributor to the reduction in streamflow.As the rainfall decreases slowly,the effects of rainfall on the reduction in streamflow may be small proportion,on the contrary,mainly due to evapotranspiration,temperature and solar radiation,etc.The contribution from human activities on the reduction in streamflow gradually increases.
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NSTL
万方数据
维普
