降雨时程分配对小流域山洪灾害临界雨量的影响——以滕家河流域为例
Influence of Rainfall Schedule Distribution on Critical Rainfall of Mountain Flood Disaster in Small River Basin——A Case Study of the Tengjiahe River Basin
张明芳 1桑国庆 2李福晨 2张士儒 3徐艳会1
作者信息
- 1. 山东省威海市水文中心,山东 威海 264209
- 2. 济南大学 水利与环境学院,山东 济南 250022
- 3. 北京七兆科技有限公司,北京 100071
- 折叠
摘要
为了提高小流域山洪灾害预警准确率,以山东省威海市滕家河流域为例,研究小流域不同降雨时程分配对山洪灾害临界雨量预警指标的影响;首先基于现场调研以及一维水动力模型确定研究区的成灾水位及临界流量,基于历史降雨数据采用模糊识别法确定雨峰靠前、雨峰靠中、雨峰靠后3种模式雨型进行降雨时程分配,采用美国陆军工程兵团水文工程中心流域性洪水模拟系统(HEC-HMS)模型计算产汇流,通过试算法计算不同雨型雨量对应的临界雨量,并分析不同降雨时程分配对临界雨量的影响,确定不同预警时段的临界雨量范围;采用历史数据对滕家河流域6 h临界雨量指标进行预警检验.结果表明:预警检验成功率为87.5%,效果较好;基于雨峰靠前模式雨型的临界雨量值普遍大于基于雨峰靠中、雨峰靠后模式雨型的,不同降雨时程分配对临界雨量产生较大影响.
Abstract
To improve the accuracy of mountain flood disaster warning in small river basins,taking the Tengjiahe River Basin in Weihai City,Shandong Province as an example,the influence of different rainfall schedule distribution on the critical rainfall warning index of mountain flood disaster was studied.Firstly,the disaster water level and critical dis-charge of the study area were determined based on the field investigation and one-dimensional hydrodynamic model.The fuzzy identification method was used to determine the distribution of three kinds of rainfall schedule distribution named rain peak ahead,rain peak middle and rain peak late based on the historical rainfall data.The production and confluence calculation was carried out using Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System(HEC-HMS)model.Through the trial and error method,the critical rainfall corresponding to different rainfall types was calculated,and the influence of different rainfall schedule distribution on the critical rainfall was analyzed,and the critical rainfall ranges of different warning periods were determined.Using historical data,the 6 h critical rainfall index of the Tengjiahe River Basin was tested.The results show that the success rate of early warning test is 87.5%,and the effect is good.The critical rainfall based on the rain pattern of rain peak ahead is generally larger than those based on the rain patterns of rain peak middle and rain peak late.
关键词
山洪灾害/临界雨量/降雨时程分配/滕家河流域Key words
mountain flood disaster/critical rainfall/rainfall schedule distribution/the Tengjiahe River Basin引用本文复制引用
基金项目
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2020ME249)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据