首页|两种模型在行人损伤严重程度影响因素分析中的对比应用

两种模型在行人损伤严重程度影响因素分析中的对比应用

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为了深入揭示人车碰撞事故发展阶段中不同因素对行人损伤的影响,综合考虑人员、车辆、环境因素的组合影响,从事故前、事故中 2 个阶段筛选 11 个与事故损失程度相关的动静态变量.基于二项逻辑回归模型和Probit回归模型,对比分析影响行人损伤严重程度的显著性因素.研究结果显示,两个模型的拟合度均通过了Hosmer-Lemeshow检验和信息准则检验,表明模型具有良好的拟合效果.行人的年龄、碰撞前是否减速和碰撞时的车速是显著影响行人损伤严重程度的共性因素,且两类模型中这三个变量的显著性排序存在差异.基于以上研究,建议加强老年人交通安全教育、强化驾驶员在复杂环境下的减速培训等措施.
Comparative application of the two models in the analysis of influencing factors of pedestrian injury severity
This study aims to deeply reveal the influence of different factors on pedestrian injuries during the development stages of pedestrian-vehicle collisions.It comprehensively considers the combined effects of personnel,vehicle,and environmental factors,selecting 11 dynamic and static variables related to the degree of accident loss from the pre-accident and during-accident stages.Binary logistic regression and Probit regression models were utilized to contrastively analyze the significant factors affecting the severity of pedestrian injuries.The results indicated that both models have good fit,as evidenced by passing the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and information criterion tests.Age of the pedestrian,deceleration before the collision,and vehicle speed at the time of collision were common significant factors affecting the severity of pedestrian injuries,with differences in the significance ranking of these variables across the two models.Based on these findings,it is recommend to enhance traffic safety education for the elderly and to strengthen driver training on deceleration in complex environments.

pedestrian injuryseveritybinomial logistic regressionProbit regression

郑刘源、李方媛、范艳辉、赵长利、江怡萌、刘燕

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山东交通学院 汽车工程学院,山东 济南 250357

行人损伤 严重程度 二项逻辑回归 Probit回归

2024

农业装备与车辆工程
山东省农业机械科学研究所 山东农机学会

农业装备与车辆工程

影响因子:0.279
ISSN:1673-3142
年,卷(期):2024.62(12)