首页|牛栏江—滇池补水工程水源区不同时间尺度径流变化特征

牛栏江—滇池补水工程水源区不同时间尺度径流变化特征

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为做好补水工程水资源调度、配置、流域水安全治理和区域防汛抗旱工作,充分发挥工程效益,基于牛栏江—滇池补水工程水源区代表站长系列水文资料,采用集中度、不均匀系数、Hurst系数、M-K趋势检验、滑动T检验等多种方法分析了牛栏江—滇池补水工程水源区不同时间尺度径流变化特征.结果表明,水源区不同时间尺度径流年际变化大、丰—平—枯周期明显;年内分配向均匀性和坦化趋势演变;最小1、7 d径流显著上升,其他7个径流趋势变化不显著,均发生突变;年、丰水期、极端最大等5个径流指标突变后径流量减少明显,枯水期和极端最小等4个径流指标突变后为增长趋势;年径流突变后8~10月来水量减少明显;预计补水工程水源区未来一段时间不易发生极端枯水事件,但总来水量可能会进一步衰减.
Characteristics of Runoff Changes at Different Time Scales in the Water Source Area of the Niulan River Dianchi Lake Replenishment Project
In order to carry out water resource scheduling,allocation,watershed water safety management,and re-gional flood control and drought relief work in water replenishment projects,fully leveraging the engineering benefits,based on the representative station master's series of hydrological data from the water source area of the Niulan River Di-anchi Lake Water Replenishment Project,the characteristics of runoff changes at different time scales in the water source area of the Niulan River Dianchi Lake replenishment project were analyzed using various methods such as concentration,non-uniformity coefficient,Hurst coefficient,M-K trend test,sliding T-test.The results show that the inter-annual vari-ation of runoff at different time scales in the water source area is significant,with a clear period of high to low runoff;E-volution of distribution towards uniformity and normalization within the year;The minimum 1 d and 7 d runoff showed a significant upward trend,while the other 7 runoff trends showed no significant changes and all experienced sudden chan-ges;After five sudden changes in runoff indicators,including the year,high water period,and extreme maximum,the runoff decreased significantly,while the four sudden changes in runoff indicators,including low water period and extreme minimum,showed an increasing trend;After the sudden change in annual runoff,the water inflow from August to Octo-ber decreased significantly;It is expected that extreme low water events will not occur in the water source area of the wa-ter replenishment project in the future,but the total inflow may further decline.

changes of runoffuneven coefficientconcentrationHurst coefficientmutation analysisdifferent time scales

李宝芬、崔松云、王东升、杨绍琼、卢书梅

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云南省水文水资源局昆明分局,云南昆明 650032

云南省水文水资源局,云南昆明 650000

径流变化 不均匀系数 集中度 Hurst系数 突变分析 不同时间尺度

国家自然科学基金重点项目

91547205

2024

水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.525
ISSN:1000-7709
年,卷(期):2024.42(1)
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