Urban Flooding/Waterlogging Risk Analysis in the Downtown Area of Jinan City
With the rapid development of the economics and society as well as the continuous urbanization,most of large and medium-sized cities in China are facing severe urban flooding/waterlogging problems.Therefore,it is very im-portant for the government to establish a scientific and reasonable flood risk assessment system to formulate flood control and disaster reduction policies.The downtown area of Jinan City was selected as the study area,and the cellular automata CAflood model was developed.On the basis of simulation results,the coupling index system method and numerical simu-lation method,and with the combination of an integrated weight estimated by using analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method,a new risk assessment index system for urban flooding/waterlogging disaster was proposed to assess the flooding/waterlogging risk in different rainstorm scenarios in the downtown area of Jinan City.The results showed that the integrated weighting method of comprehensive entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process can combine the subjective and objective advantages of each method,and the method was more scientific and reasonable than any single weighting method;The results of flooding/waterlogging risk zoning show that the high-risk area was highly consistent with the historical flooding/waterlogging casualties in Jinan City,indicating that the risk assessment system proposed showed strong applicability in flooding/waterlogging risk zoning in Jinan City;With the increase of return period,the area with medium and higher risk levels increased.Among them,the area change of high-risk areas showed most sensitive to rainfall with a return period of 5 to 10 years.It was suggested that when heavy rainfall with the return period of 5-10 years in Jinan City,local government should pay much attention on flooding/waterlogging disaster in high-risk areas,and take early warning and mitigation measures as soon as possible.
CAflood modelweighting methodflooding/waterlogging simulationrisk analysisJinan City
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
