Study on Relationship Between Water and Sediment and Prediction Method of Suspended Sediment Concentration in the Water Source Area of the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project
The water source condition of the Central Yunnan Water Diversion Project is very important.In order to fully understand the water volume and the sediment concentration characteristics of suspended load in the project water source area and analyze the future situation of the sediment concentration of suspended load,based on the data series of Shigu Hydrological Station in the water source area,the methods of hydrological random analysis,wavelet analysis,Cop-ula function were used to study the change trend and periodic law,joint distribution and dependent change of water and sand at Shigu Station.On this basis,a simulation and prediction model of suspended load concentration was proposed.The results show that the discharge and suspended load concentration at Shigu Station are unevenly distributed Interannu-al and within years;The co-occurrence recurrence period of the combination of water and sediment is the largest,followed by the joint recurrence period,and the conditional recurrence period is the smallest.The probability of synchronous en-counter is much greater than that of asynchronous encounter;In the future,the average annual sediment concentration of suspended load under the wet,normal and dry water scenarios are 0.639 kg/m3,0.597 kg/m3 and 0.562 kg/m3,respec-tively,which are 9.0％,1.9％ and-4.1％ higher than the measured 0.586 kg/m3 from 1955 to 2019.The sediment concentration of suspended load under the three scenarios shows an upward trend.The research results provide a reliable decision-making basis for water supply scheduling and sediment concentration estimation of the Central Yunnan Water Di-version Project from the perspective of water and sediment analysis.
central Yunnan water diversion projectwater-sediment relationshipCopula functionsimulationpre-diction
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
