水电能源科学2024，Vol.42Issue(2) ：5-8.DOI:10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2024.20231458

小清河干流近60年径流变化归因分析

Attribution Identification of Runoff Change in Xiaoqing River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis

钱秀红 程森 韩笑宇 武玮 王宏雪
水电能源科学2024，Vol.42Issue(2) ：5-8.DOI:10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2024.20231458
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  • 维普
  • 万方数据

小清河干流近60年径流变化归因分析

Attribution Identification of Runoff Change in Xiaoqing River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis

钱秀红 1程森 1韩笑宇 2武玮 2王宏雪2
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作者信息

  • 1. 山东省海河淮河小清河流域管理服务中心,山东 济南 250100
  • 2. 济南大学水利与环境学院,山东 济南 250022
  • 折叠

摘要

为分析小清河径流变化规律,基于 1965～2018 年的降水和径流量数据,分析其变化趋势及突变点,并采用Budyko假设与弹性系数相结合的方法,定量识别了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率.结果表明,1965～2018 年小清河降水量呈微弱增加趋势,而径流量呈显著增加趋势;突变点分析发现年径流量在1994、2003 年发生突变,因此将 1965～1994 年作为基准期,以 1995～2003、2004～2018 年分别作为变化期Ⅰ、Ⅱ;基于Budyko水热耦合平衡方程发现变化期Ⅰ径流增加的主要原因是下垫面条件和降水的改变,贡献率分别为 64.74%、21.83%,潜在蒸散发的贡献率为 13.43%;变化期Ⅱ径流增加的首要原因是下垫面条件的改变,占 59.57%,其次是降水和潜在蒸散发,分别为 23.83%、16.60%.因此,小清河岔河径流变化是人类活动和气候变化共同作用的结果,其中人类活动引起的下垫面条件变化为主导因素,其次为降水影响.

Abstract

In order to understand the runoff characteristics in the Xiaoqing River Basin,the change trend and muta-tion point of precipitation and runoff were analyzed based on the precipitation and flow in 1965-2018.The impact of cli-mate change and human activities on runoff changes were quantitatively identified by the combination of Budyko hypothe-sis and elastic coefficient.The results showed that the annual precipitation of 1965-2018 showed an insignificant increasing trend,while the runoff showed a significant increasing trend;Based on mutation point analysis,the annual runoff was changed abruptly in 1994 and 2003,and 1965-1994 was taken as the base period,1995-2003 and 2004-2018 were as the change period Ⅰ and change period Ⅱ,respectively;The contribution rates of underlying surface conditions and precipi-tation on runoff changes in change period Ⅰ were 64.74% and 21.83% ,while the contribution of potential evapotranspi-ration was 13.43% .Similar results were showed in change period Ⅱ of the runoff changes,59.57% was attributed from underlying surface changes,23.83% and 16.60% were from precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.The runoff in the Xiaoqing River Basin was jointly changed by human activities and climate change.The change of underlying surface conditions caused by human activities is the dominant factor.The second is the influence of precipitation.

关键词

Budyko假设/径流变化/归因分析/人类活动/小清河

Key words

Budyko hypothesis/runoff variation/attribution identification/human activities/Xiaoqing River

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基金项目

小清河防洪综合治理工程科学研究试验项目(XQHFHZL-KY202003)

国家自然科学基金项目(51909104)

山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019BEE064)

出版年

2024
水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.525
ISSN：1000-7709
参考文献量7
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