Attribution Identification of Runoff Change in Xiaoqing River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis
In order to understand the runoff characteristics in the Xiaoqing River Basin,the change trend and muta-tion point of precipitation and runoff were analyzed based on the precipitation and flow in 1965-2018.The impact of cli-mate change and human activities on runoff changes were quantitatively identified by the combination of Budyko hypothe-sis and elastic coefficient.The results showed that the annual precipitation of 1965-2018 showed an insignificant increasing trend,while the runoff showed a significant increasing trend;Based on mutation point analysis,the annual runoff was changed abruptly in 1994 and 2003,and 1965-1994 was taken as the base period,1995-2003 and 2004-2018 were as the change period Ⅰ and change period Ⅱ,respectively;The contribution rates of underlying surface conditions and precipi-tation on runoff changes in change period Ⅰ were 64.74% and 21.83% ,while the contribution of potential evapotranspi-ration was 13.43% .Similar results were showed in change period Ⅱ of the runoff changes,59.57% was attributed from underlying surface changes,23.83% and 16.60% were from precipitation and potential evapotranspiration.The runoff in the Xiaoqing River Basin was jointly changed by human activities and climate change.The change of underlying surface conditions caused by human activities is the dominant factor.The second is the influence of precipitation.
Budyko hypothesisrunoff variationattribution identificationhuman activitiesXiaoqing River
万方数据
维普
