Estimation of Diversion Risk Rate at Initial Stage of Hydropower Project Construction Based on Probability Distribution Optimization
Scientifically and accurately estimating diversion risk rate at the initial stage of hydropower project con-struction provides an important basis for decision-making of construction diversion scheme.In previous risk models,the random distribution of construction flood peak is assumed to follow P-Ⅲ distribution,which will affect the accuracy and reliability of diversion risk rate.The K-S test method was used to select the preliminary probability distribution type of construction flood peak.And then the best probability distribution was selected through the goodness of fit evaluation of RRMSE,MMAE and QQD values.Considering the randomness of hydrology and hydraulics,the calculation framework of di-version risk rate at the initial stage of construction based on probability distribution optimization was constructed,and the specific process of solving the risk rate using the Monte-Carlo method was given.Finally,two large hydropower projects in China are applied and analyzed.The results show that the proposed risk rate calculation framework and solution process are feasible and effective;I-MED has certain fitting ability and can be used in the simulation of diversion risk;The probability distribution order of the two cases is different,and the optimal probability distribution is different,thus af-fecting the diversion risk rate.The research results effectively expand the theoretical framework of construction diversion risk.
diversion risk rateprobability distribution optimizationconstruction flood peakgoodness of fit evalua-tionMonte-Carlo method
万方数据
维普
