Research on Forecast of Flood Rainstorm at Kilometer Scale in Haoxi Basin Based on WRF Model
Given the presence of mountains and hills in the Haoxi River Basin,as well as the frequent occurrence of intense rainstorms during the plum rain season and typhoon season,there are significant challenges in accurately forecas-ting rainfall at a kilometer scale.This study selected 10 flood-causing rainstorm events in the Haoxi River Basin from 2015 to 2020 and conducted retrospective forecasts for 6 hours,30 hours,and 54 hours using the mesoscale numerical weather prediction model WRF and GFS forecast data.The sensitivity of five cloud microphysics parameterization schemes was tested.The results show that at the kilometer scale,the rainfall simulated by the WRF model is underesti-mated,and its forecasting performance is better for mountainous regions than for valley areas.The Lin scheme performs the best overall,while the WSM3 scheme performs the worst.The selected ten extreme precipitation events are influ-enced by abnormal weather conditions such as typhoons and southwest low-level jet streams,with the Lin scheme and WSM5 scheme being more applicable.The WRF model performs better in forecasting heavy rain compared to extreme rain.This study provides valuable insights for improving the simulation and forecasting accuracy of flood-causing rainfall in small watersheds in mountainous areas.
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
维普
