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基于模糊推理的山东省沿黄农业适水评价

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为研究山东省沿黄地区农业适水发展情况,从水资源承载力—农业用水水平—水资源与农业协调性三个方面构建了山东省沿黄农业适水评价体系,采用模糊推理评价模型定量分析研究区现状年农业适水状况和 2013~2021 年农业适水能力动态变化,并提出短期最佳提升方向.结果表明,研究区农业适水评价得分为46.64,其中大部分城市处于勉强适水和轻度不适水状态,仅有济南、滨州为Ⅱ级良好适水;水资源承载力是农业适水发展的主要制约因素,增加水资源承载力是提升研究区及济南、淄博、聊城、滨州、济宁等市的农业适水能力的最优方向;2013~2021 年农业适水指数呈现曲折上升趋势,整体农业适水水平向好的趋势发展.
Evaluation of Agricultural Water Appropriate Along the Yellow River in Shandong Province Based on Fuzzy Inference
In order to study the development situation of agricultural water-appropriate in Shandong Province along the Yellow River,a water suitability evaluation system for agriculture along the Yellow River in Shandong Province was constructed from three aspects,namely,water resources carrying capacity,level of agricultural water use,and coordina-tion between water resources and agriculture.A fuzzy reasoning evaluation model was used to quantitatively analyze the current agricultural water-appropriate status of the study area in the current year and the dynamic change of agricultural water suitability from 2013 to 2021.The direction of short-term optimal enhancement was put forward.The results show that the evaluation score of agricultural water-appropriate in the study area is 46.64,in which most of the cities are in the state of barely water suitability and mildly water suitability,and only Jinan and Binzhou are in the state of good water suitability of class Ⅱ;Water resources carrying capacity is the main constraint for the development of agricultural water-appropriate,and increasing the carrying capacity of water resources is the optimal direction for enhancing the agricultural water suitability in the study area and the cities of Jinan,Zibo,Liaocheng,Binzhou and Jining.From 2013 to 2021,the agricultural water-appropriate index shows a zigzag upward trend,and the overall agricultural water-appropriate level de-velops towards a favorable trend.

agricultural water-appropriate evaluationfuzzy inferenceevaluation systemupgrading directionShandong Province along the yellow area

陈洋、李庆国、胡玉超、杨文泰、刘丰铭、刘杰、刘玉玉

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济南大学水利与环境学院, 山东 济南 250022

农业适水评价 模糊推理 评价体系 提升方向 山东省沿黄地区

国家自然科学基金

51909105

2024

水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.525
ISSN:1000-7709
年,卷(期):2024.42(4)
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