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气候变暖背景下云南省暴雨灾害风险区划研究

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为进一步研究气候变暖背景下云南省暴雨灾害风险,利用 25 个气象站 1990~2020 年的逐日降水数据、社会经济、地理国情和历史灾情数据,基于 ArcGIS的空间分析功能,运用暴雨灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法、层次分析法和百分位数法通过建立由暴雨灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力组成的综合暴雨灾害风险评估模型,实现了对云南省暴雨灾害风险的区划研究.结果表明,云南省中东部和南部暴雨灾害风险较高,其中昆明中部及南部、曲靖南部、红河南部、西双版纳南部等地区暴雨灾害风险最高;暴雨灾害中等风险区主要位于曲靖北部、文山西南部、普洱西部、保山北部、楚雄西北部等地,而西北部的迪庆和怒江两州的暴雨灾害风险较低.区划结果能在一定程度上反映出云南暴雨灾害的分布情况,具有较好的理论意义和实际指导价值.
Study on Risk Zoning of Rainstorm Disaster in Yunnan Province Under Background of Climate Warming
In order to further study the risk of rainstorm disasters in Yunnan Province under the background of cli-mate warming,using the daily precipitation data of 25 weather stations from 1990 to 2020,socio-economic,geographical conditions and historical disaster data,based on the spatial analysis function of ArcGIS software,the rainstorm disaster risk index method,the weighted comprehensive evaluation method,the analytic hierarchy process and the percentile method were used to establish a comprehensive rainstorm disaster risk assessment model by combing the risk of the rain-storm disaster hazard,the sensitivity of the disaster-forming environment,the vulnerability of the disaster-bearing body,and the ability to prevent and reduce disasters.The comprehensive model realized the regionalization on the risk of rain-storm disaster in Yunnan Province.The results show that the risk of rainstorm disasters in the central,eastern and southern areas of Yunnan Province was relatively high,and the risk of rainstorm disasters was highest in the central and southern Kunming,southern Qujing,southern Red River,and southern Xishuangbanna.The moderate risk area of rain-storm disasters was mainly located in northern Qujing,southwestern Wenshan,western Pu'er,northern Baoshan,and northwest Chuxiong,while Diqing and Nujiang prefectures in the northwest had relatively low risk of rainstorm disasters.It was found that the zoning results can reflect the distribution of rainstorm disasters to a certain extent,which has a good theoretical significance and practical guiding value.

rainstorm disasterrisk zoningAHP methodGIS techniqueYunnan Province

王丹、李谢辉

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成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川 成都 610225

成都信息工程大学云南自然灾害防御技术研发中心,云南 昆明 650034

暴雨灾害 风险区划 AHP法 GIS技术 云南省

云南省科技厅重点研发项目云南省科技厅重点研发项目中国气象局干旱气象科学研究基金成都信息工程大学科技创新能力提升计划

202203AC100005202203AC100021IAM202201KYTD202343

2024

水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.525
ISSN:1000-7709
年,卷(期):2024.42(5)
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