Monthly Runoff Forecasting of Danjiangkou Reservoir Inflow Based on Different Factor Screening Indicators
Screening and identifying suitable forecasting factors are crucial for improving the accuracy of medium and long-term runoff forecast.Taking the monthly runoff forecasting of Danjiangkou as an example,Pearson,Kendall,Spearman correlation coefficients and Random Forest Factor Importance were selected as the factor screening indexes,and multiple regression and Random Forest model were used to carry out a study on the monthly runoff forecasting of Dan-jiangkou Reservoir based on the screening indexes of different factors.The results show that the atmospheric circulation is still an important influencing factor for the study of basin precipitation and production and sink flow,and part of the monthly runoff is more closely related to the SST in the previous period.The average annual forecast effect of the Ran-dom Forest model screened by Spearman correlation coefficient is the best,and the average annual pass rate is 72.02%.The average pass rate of the Random Forest model screened by factor importance is better in the main flood season,and the average pass rate is 69.64%.The accuracy of the Random Forest model under the comprehensive forecasting factors improved to some extent,with the average pass rate of 75.00%in the whole year and 71.43%in the main flood season.The forecast effect is more stable in different months throughout the year,and the standard deviation of the 12-month pass rate during the test period decreases significantly.
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