首页|基于WRF的郑州市降雨模拟方案分析

基于WRF的郑州市降雨模拟方案分析

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为探究WRF模式对郑州市五区降雨过程的模拟能力,比选出一套符合郑州市五区大多数降雨的WRF模拟参数,采用 WRF模式中的Thompson、WSM6 及 Lin三种微物理参数方案分别模拟了郑州市五区的 9 场降雨持续时间为 1 h,重现期以 3~5 年为主的降雨事件,并对 9 场不同降雨历时、重现期的降雨事件在Thompson方案下进行模拟,通过水文预报中常用的相对误差、相关系数、均方根误差、平均误差进行评价.结果表明,Thompson方案在总降雨量、过程量及降雨趋势方面相较 WSM6、Lin方案稳定性更好;对于不同降雨历时、重现期的降雨,Thompson方案模拟结果的相关系数都较高,但均方根误差略微偏大,平均误差正负参半,数值也相对偏小.研究结果对郑州市降雨预报方案的选择具有一定参考价值.
Analysis of Rainfall Simulation Scheme in Zhengzhou City Based on WRF
In order to explore the ability of WRF mode to simulate the rainfall process in the five districts of Zheng-zhou City,a set of WRF simulation parameters was selected which were consistent with most rainfall in five districts of Zhengzhou City.Three microphysical parameter schemes of Thompson,WSM 6 and Lin in WRF mode were used to sim-ulate 9 rainfall events with a duration of 1 h and 3-5 years in the recurrence period,respectively.The nine rainfall events with different rainfall duration and recurrence period were simulated under the Thompson scheme.The relative error(RRE),correlation coefficient(CCOR),root mean squared error(RRMSE)and mean error(MME)commonly used in hydro-logical forecasting were used to evaluate the schemes.The results are show that the rainfall simulation under Thompson scheme is better stable than WSM 6 and Lin schemes in terms of total rainfall,process amount and rainfall trend.For the rainfall of different rainfall duration and recurrence periods,the CCOR of the simulation results by Thompson scheme is high,but the RRMSE is slightly larger;The MME is half positive and half negative,and the value is relatively small.The results have certain reference value for the selection of rainfall forecast scheme for Zhengzhou City.

WRF moderainfall simulationmicrophysical parametersZhengzhou City

张金萍、李志伟、王茹玉

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郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南 郑州 450001

黄河生态保护与区域协调发展研究院,河南 郑州 450001

WRF模式 降雨模拟 微物理参数 郑州市

国家重点研发计划2021年度河南省面上基金项目灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题2022年度教授团队助力企业创新驱动发展专项国家自然科学基金项目

2021YFC32002052123004104042021LASW-A15JSZLQY202207652379028

2024

水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.525
ISSN:1000-7709
年,卷(期):2024.42(6)