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广东雨窝地形下中小水库极端降水及其发生时间的特征分析

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广东清新—佛冈—龙门是广东三大暴雨中心之一,历史上曾多次发生洪涝灾害,大秦、银盏、良洞和黄龙带四座中小水库地处该雨窝中心,因而提升其防洪减灾及水资源管理能力亟待研究.利用研究区域内 93个站点的历史逐日雨量数据,基于 EEMD分解、圆形统计和 R/S分析等方法,对这四座中小水库的极端降水及其发生时间的特征进行分析.结果表明,四座水库各极端降水指数主要表现为准 3、7 年的年际变化周期;四座水库的极端降水主要发生在前汛期,且未来发生时间仍会高度集中;良洞水库具有最强的降水强度和极值降水,大秦和银盏水库的降水极端性在未来有增强趋势,应特别关注;在年初的冬季至秋季需做好四座水库灾害性天气的监测和预警,其中春夏季需重点关注良洞水库极端降水的发生.
Analysis of Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation and Occurrence Time of Small and Medium Sized Reservoir Under the"Rain Nest"Terrain in Guangdong Province
Qingyuan-Fogang-Longmen which had occurred floods many times in history is one of the three heavy rain-storm centers in Guangdong Province.For providing scientific references for flood control and hazard mitigation,as well as water resource management of Daqin,Yinzhan,Liangdong and Huanglongdai reservoirs under this"Rain Nest"ter-rain,historical daily rainfall data from 93 stations in study area were used,and the characteristics of extreme precipitation and its occurrence time of four small and medium sized reservoir were investigated with the help of EEMD,circle statis-tics and R/S analysis method.The main results are as follows:The interannual variation periods of the extreme precipita-tion indices of four reservoirs is 3 a and 7 a.The extreme precipitation of four reservoirs mainly occurs during pre-rainy season,and its occurrence time will still be highly concentrated in the future.Liangdong Reservoir has the strongest pre-cipitation intensity and extreme precipitation,and the extreme precipitation of Daqin and Yinzhan Rerervoirs will increase in the future,which should be given special attention.The extreme precipitation of four reservoirs mainly occurs from winter to autumn and in spring and summer in Liangdong Reservoir should be focused on.

small and medium sized reservoirextreme precipitationoccurrence timeEEMDcircle statisticsHurst indices

陈晓旸、王敏、梁健、孙秀峰

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广东省韶关市气象局,广东 韶关 512000

广东省气象台(南海海洋气象预报中心、珠江流域气象台),广东 广州 510610

广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东 广州 510610

中小水库 极端降水 发生时间 EEMD 圆形统计 Hurst指数

国家自然科学基金项目广东省水利科技创新重点项目

420751902022-02

2024

水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.525
ISSN:1000-7709
年,卷(期):2024.42(6)