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临沂市近50年降水、气温和蒸发时空变化特征分析

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为给临沂市未来农业生产发展气候资源的高效利用提供理论依据,开展临沂市近 50 年来的三大气象要素(降水、气温和蒸发)时空变化特征研究,运用线性回归分析、经验正交分解函数(EOF)和 Morlet 小波函数方法揭示其趋势性、时空模态和多时间尺度特征.结果表明,临沂市降水(2.09 mm/a)、气温(0.04℃/a)呈同步增长趋势,蒸发(-6.47 mm/a)因供蒸发的能量显著减少而呈"蒸发悖论"的下降变化.空间分布上,降水以前期全区域偏少而后期全区域偏多的一致性增长趋势的第一模态为主,和"东南-西北"向呈反相位变化的第二模态为辅,仅在沂南呈较大的年际波动;气温则呈现同质性特征突出的增温变化趋势格局;蒸发异质性高,呈两种主要模态,以莒南异于其他地区的空间格局主导.三大气象要素都存在短期(5 年)、中期(16年)、长期(25 年)的年际和年代际变化,降水以 16 年主导,年均温为 24 年,年蒸发量以 31 年为主.未来短期内,临沂市区域降水和气温将经历高于多年平均值的下降变化,蒸发呈高于多年平均值的上升变化,尤其要重点关注沂南和莒南的局部区域气候变化.
Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Precipitation,Temperature and Evaporation in Linyi in Recent 50 Years
In order to provide a theoretical reference for the efficient use of climate resources for the future develop-ment of agricultural production in Linyi,the temporal variation characteristics of three meteorological elements(precipi-tation,temperature and evaporation)in the past 50 years were studied.Linear regression analysis,empirical orthogonal decomposition function(EOF)and Morlet wavelet function were used to reveal its trend,temporal and spatial modes and multi-time scale characteristics.The precipitation(2.09 mm/a)and temperature(0.04℃/a)in Linyi City show a syn-chronous growth trend,while evaporation(-6.47 mm/a)shows a decreasing trend of"evaporation paradox"due to the significant decrease of energy for evaporation.In terms of spatial distribution,precipitation is dominated by the first mode with a consistent growth trend of less in the whole region in the early stage and more in the later stage,supplemented by the second mode with inverse phase change in the southeast-northwest direction,with large interannual fluctuations only in Yinan;Temperature shows a pattern of warming change with outstanding homogeneity;Evaporation is highly hetero-geneous with two main modes,dominated by a spatial pattern different from other regions in Junan.All three meteoro-logical elements have interannual and interdecadal variations in the short-term(5 a),medium-term(16 a),and long-term(25 a),with precipitation dominated by 16 a,mean annual temperature by 24 a,and annual evapotranspiration by 31 a.In the short-term future,the regional precipitation and temperature in Linyi will experience decreasing changes above the multi-year average,and evaporation shows increasing changes above the multi-year average.The local regional climate changes in Yinan and Junan should be focused on.

precipitationtemperatureevaporationLinyi

李莉、沈文宇、王丽丽、陈秀斋、谭效磊

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临沂市气象局,山东 临沂 276000

北京工业大学,北京 100124

成都信息工程大学,四川 成都 610000

山东临沂烟草有限公司,山东 临沂 276000

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降水 气温 蒸发 临沂

山东省气象局重点课题山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室项目

2020SDQXZ092021SDYD29

2024

水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.525
ISSN:1000-7709
年,卷(期):2024.42(6)
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