首页|1986~2021年北京市用水结构演变及驱动因素分析

1986~2021年北京市用水结构演变及驱动因素分析

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为从根本上解决北京市水资源短缺问题,深入分析北京市用水结构演变并掌握其主要驱动因素显得尤为必要.利用水足迹法、信息熵理论综合分析 1986~2021 年北京市供用水结构变化规律,并基于灰色关联度探究影响用水结构演变的主要驱动因素.结果表明,北京市水足迹由 53.0×108 m3 增至 131.5×108 m3,且外贸虚拟水对于缓解用水压力至关重要;北京市区用水结构逐年下降,其余各区用水结构由均衡发展逐渐朝单一化演变,各区用水驱动因素有差异;全市用水结构演变驱动因素由最初农业用水主导(其灰色关联度高达0.9 以上),逐渐转化为生活、生态环境为主.
Analysis of Evolution of Water Use Structure and Driving Factors in Beijing from 1986 to 2021
To fundamentally solve the problem of water resource shortage,it is necessary to analyze in-depth the evo-lution of the water use structure in Beijing and grasp its main driving factors.This paper uses the water footprint method and information entropy theory to comprehensively analyze the change pattern of Beijing's water supply and water use structure from 1986 to 2021,and the main driving factors affecting the evolution of water use structure were explored based on the gray correlation degree.The results show that the water footprint of Beijing increased from 5.30 billion m3 to 13.15 billion m3,and the virtual water of foreign trade occupies an important position in alleviating the pressure of wa-ter use;The water use structure of Beijing City declined year by year,and the water use structure of the rest of districts gradually evolved towards homogeneous development from balanced development,and the water use driving factors of the districts were different;The driving factor of the evolution of the city's water use structure was initially dominated by the agricultural water use with a gray correlation as high as 0.9 or more,but now it is gradually transformed to be dominated by living and ecological environment.

evolution of water use structurewater footprintinformation entropygrey correlation degree

王嘉浩、郝春沣、仇亚琴、李海明、杜军凯、刘海滢

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天津科技大学滨海地下水利用与保护研究室,天津 300450

中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京 100038

用水结构演变 水足迹 信息熵 灰色关联度

国家自然科学基金项目

52009140

2024

水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.525
ISSN:1000-7709
年,卷(期):2024.42(6)