Seepage Risk Analysis of Earth-rock Dams Based on the Weakes t-norm Algorithm and Fuzzy Bayesian Network
The influencing factors of earth-rock dam seepage are numerous,and the risk assessment system is inade-quate.To solve the problem,the model of earth-rock dam seepage risk analysis was proposed based on the weakest t-norm algorithm and Fuzzy Bayesian network.Firstly,a risk analysis framework for seepage of earth-rock dams was con-structed based on the causative factors of seepage-induced failure in earth-rock dams.Subsequently,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the weakest t-norm aggregation algorithm were used to solve the similarity results derived from di-verse expert assessments.Finally,these similarity results were probabilistically transformed and integrated into Bayesian theory to calculate damage risk of reservoir leakage.Taking a case study of the 2005 Yingdeer Reservoir seepage failure incident for an example,the calculated probability of reservoir seepage failure stands at 0.08,belonging to an intolerable risk threshold.Through reverse diagnostic validation,the model's robustness and sensitivity surpass the conventional al-gorithms.The research results can provide reference for seepage risk analysis and decision-making in earth-rock dams.
seepage of earth-rock damBayesian Networkthe weakest t-normrisk analysis
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