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郑州市暴雨强度公式计算与对比分析

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为真实客观地反映郑州市近年来暴雨特征变化,进一步优化郑州市暴雨强度公式,选取2000～2022年11个降雨历时的年最大暴雨量,采用最小二乘法、遗传算法、拟牛顿法优化了郑州市暴雨强度公式参数,并与郑州市2002年暴雨强度公式以及2023年暴雨强度公式进行对比分析.结果表明,郑州市暴雨强度公式在指数分布中采用拟牛顿法拟合误差最小,最终确定的优化参数A1 为11.312、C为2.968、b为19.8、n为0.900;在不同重现期暴雨条件下,优化公式相对于2002年公式呈现出完全不同的极值分布情况,即"大的更大、小的更小",而与2023年公式的雨强相差较小;在不同降雨情景管网水力运行特征中,优化公式与2023年公式的模拟结果高度一致,两者在预测郑州市内涝情况整体上具有相似的准确性和可靠性,对城市排水防涝具有一定的指导作用.
Calculation and Comparative Analysis of Rainstorm Intensity Formula in Zhengzhou City
In order to truly and objectively reflect the characteristics of rainstorm in recent years,and further optimize the formula of rainstorm intensity in Zhengzhou City,this paper selects the annual maximum rainstorm amount of 11 rainfall duration from 2000 to 2022.The least square method,genetic algorithm,and quasi Newton method are used to optimize the parameters of rainstorm intensity formula in Zhengzhou City,and comparative analysis with the rainstorm intensity formula in 2002 and the rainstorm intensity formula in 2023 in Zhengzhou City is carried out.The results show that the fitting error of quasi-Newton method in the exponential distribution of rainstorm intensity formula in Zhengzhou is the smallest,and the final optimized parameters of A1,C,b,n are 11.312,2.968,19.8,0.900,respectively;Under the condition of rainstorm in different return periods,the optimized formula presents a completely different extreme value distribution compared with the formula in 2002,that is,"the big one is bigger and the small one is smaller",while the difference between the rainfall intensity of the optimized formula and the formula in 2023 is small;In different rainfall scenarios,the simulation results of the optimization formula for the hydraulic operation characteristics of the pipeline net-work are highly consistent with the formula in 2023.The two have similar accuracy and reliability in predicting the overall waterlogging situation in Zhengzhou City,which have a certain guiding role for urban drainage and flood prevention.

rainstorm intensity formulaannual maximum methodparameter optimizationIDF curvehydraulic operation characteristics of pipeline network

张金萍、王茹玉、李志伟

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郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南 郑州 450001

黄河生态保护与区域协调发展研究院,河南 郑州 450001

暴雨强度公式 年最大值法 参数优化 IDF曲线 管网水力运行特征

国家重点研发计划2021年度河南省面上基金项目灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题2022年度教授团队助力企业创新驱动发展专项

2021YFC32002052123004104042021LASW-A15JSZLQY2022076

2024

10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2024.20231336

水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：0.525
ISSN：1000-7709
年,卷(期)：2024.42(8)
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