基于短时序降雨数据的区域设计降雨估计
Estimation Regional Design Rainfall Based on Short-term Rainfall Records
朱志华 1周雯洁2
作者信息
- 1. 惠州学院地理与旅游学院,广东 惠州 516007;广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院,广东 广州 510006
- 2. 广东工业大学生态环境与资源学院,广东 广州 510006
- 折叠
摘要
为克服传统设计降雨方法对降雨要求高且忽略空间分布等特点,基于ERA5再分析降雨数据,分析东江流域降雨时空分布特征,并选取不同时期的短时序降雨数据耦合RainyDay模型,以推估得到具有时空特征的区域设计降雨,并探讨基于短时序降雨数据推估设计降雨的可行性.结果表明,东江流域时空分布不均匀,空间上流域西南平均降雨量和极端降雨发生概率较大,而时间上有明显的季节性,降雨集中于4～9月;耦合RainyDay模型和短时序降雨数据能较好地反演和推估研究区域的设计降雨,其能够考虑不同重现期下降雨的空间分布特征,克服了传统方法简化空间分布、所需降雨数据时间序列长等缺陷.
Abstract
To overcome the shortcomings of traditional design rainfall methods that have high requirements for the rainfall time series and ignore spatial distribution,based on ERA5 reanalysis rainfall dataset,the space-time distribution characteristics of rainfall in Dongjiang River watershed was analyzed.Different short-term rainfall records of multiple du-rations were selected to couple RainyDay model to estimate regional design rainfall,and the feasibility was discussed.The results show that the Dongjiang River watershed is unevenly distributed in time and space.The mean total rainfall and probability of rainfall occurrence in the southwest of Dongjiang River watershed are higher.There is obvious seasonality in time,and the rainfall mainly occurs from April to September.RainyDay model coupled with short-term rainfall records can estimate regional design rainfall,which can consider the spatial distribution characteristics of rainfall under multiple return periods.The proposed method overcomes the shortcomings of traditional methods such as simplified spatial distri-bution and long time series of rainfall data.
关键词
短时序降雨/设计降雨/RainyDay模型/时空分布Key words
short-term rainfall/design rainfall/RainyDay model/space-time distribution引用本文复制引用
基金项目
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金自然科学基金面上项目(2024A1515012440)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52009021)
惠州学院教授、博士启动项目(2023JB006)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据