Future Temperature and Precipitation Trend Analysis and Runoff Simulation in the Kaiduhe River Basin Based on BCC-CSM2-MR Model
The trend change of runoff affects the production and life of the residents in the basin,and it is of great significance to analyze the future climate change and runoff evolution trend in the basin under the background of global warming.The BCC-CSM2-MR model developed by the National Climate Center was used as a meteorological data to ana-lyze the changes of precipitation,water and temperature in the Kaiduhe River Basin under different emission scenarios in the future.And then the data-driven SWAT model was used to simulate the changes of runoff under different scenarios.The results show that the average temperature of the basin increases under the four climate scenarios,among which the temperature increase is the most obvious under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,and the precipitation fluctuates to a certain extent;The difference of future runoff in the basin is small in the dry season,and the difference of runoff affected by climate change is mainly reflected in the flood season.
BCC-CSM2-MR modeKaiduhe River BasinSWAT modeltrend analysisrunoff simulation
万方数据
维普
