首页|基于Copula函数的西江干流与粤西沿海诸小河径流丰枯遭遇分析

基于Copula函数的西江干流与粤西沿海诸小河径流丰枯遭遇分析

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环北部湾广东水资源配置工程从西江干流取水至广东省粤西地区,为从根本上缓解粤西地区缺水问题,研究西江干流与粤西沿海诸小河径流丰枯遭遇对工程水资源优化配置及运行调度具有重要意义.为此,基于西江干流控制水文站梧州站与粤西二个小河控制站,即鉴江化州站及九洲江缸瓦窑站数据资料,采用Copula函数建立了年、枯期、汛期不同时间尺度的径流联合分布函数,分析了径流丰枯遭遇规律.结果表明,西江干流与粤西诸小河径流间具有较高的互补性,建设水资源配置工程可很好地缓解粤西地区的缺水问题.
Analysis of Wetness-Dryness Encountering Based on Copula Functions Between Xijiang Main Stream and Western Coastal Rivers of Guangdong
The Guangdong Water Resources Allocation Project around the Beibu Gulf fetch water from the main stream of the Xijiang River to the western region of Guangdong Province.To alleviate the water shortage problem in the western region of Guangdong fundamentally,it is of great significance to study the runoff abundant and dry encountering of the Xijiang River main stream and the small rivers along the west coast of Guangdong Province for the optimal alloca-tion and operation of water resources in the project.Based on the date from the Xijiang main stream Control Hydrological Station-Wuzhou Station and two small rivers of western Guangdong Control Hydrological Station,namely Jianjiang Hua-zhou Station and Jiuzhou River Gangwayao Station,the Copula functions were used to establish a joint distribution func-tion for runoff at different time scales of annual,dry season,and flood season.The runoff wetness-dryness encountering was analyzed.The results indicate that there is a high degree of compensation between the main stream of the Xijiang River and the western coastal rivers of Guangdong,and the construction of the project can effectively supplement the wa-ter shortage problem in western Guangdong.

Beibu GulfCopula functionsXijiang RiverWestern Coastal Rivers of Guangdongwetness-dryness encountering

刘成、周秋红、王占海、吴绍飞

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中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司,广东 广州 510610

南昌工程学院,江西 南昌 330029

中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038

环北部湾 Copula函数 西江 粤西沿海诸小河 丰枯遭遇

江西省自然科学基金项目中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放基金江西省教育厅科技项目资助

20232BAB214089IWHR-SKL-KF202308GJJ190943

2024

水电能源科学
中国水力发电工程学会 华中科技大学 武汉国测三联水电设备有限公司

水电能源科学

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.525
ISSN:1000-7709
年,卷(期):2024.42(9)
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