摘要
以我国某大型梯级水电站为例,基于文献分析法识别其联合运行期的风险源,建立风险指标体系,对传统的模糊故障树法进行改进,在其量化风险概率的基础上,利用层次分析法确定基本事件重要性权重,二者相结合对梯级水电站联合运行期进行风险分析,计算出梯级水电站联合运行期的风险发生概率.结果表明,梯级水电站联合运行期的风险发生概率为4.22×10-3,根据《水电站大坝运行安全评价导则》综合判定,风险等级较高,应合理制定相应措施加强风险防范,降低风险损失.研究结果为制定梯级水电站风险防控措施以及进行风险管理提供了基础和支持.
Abstract
Taking a large cascade hydropower station in China as the research object,the risk source during joint op-eration is identified based on the literature analysis method,and a risk index system is established.Then the traditional fuzzy fault tree method is improved.On the basis of quantifying the risk probability,the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the importance weight of basic events.The combination of the two is used to analyze the risk of the cascade hydropower station,and the risk occurrence probability of cascade hydropower station during joint operation peri-od is calculated.The results show that the probability of risk occurrence during the joint operation period of cascade hy-dropower station is 4.22×10-3.According to the Guidelines for the Safety Evaluation of Hydropower Station Dam Oper-ation,the risk level is high,and the corresponding measures should be reasonably formulated to strengthen risk preven-tion and reduce risk losses.This study provides a basis for the formulation of risk prevention and control measures and risk management of cascade hydropower stations.
基金项目
西藏自治区清洁能源科技重大专项(XZ202201ZD0003G)
国家自然科学基金项目(52379019)
维普
万方数据