Risk Analysis of Cascade Hydropower Station During Joint Operation Based on Improved Fuzzy Fault Tree Method
Taking a large cascade hydropower station in China as the research object,the risk source during joint op-eration is identified based on the literature analysis method,and a risk index system is established.Then the traditional fuzzy fault tree method is improved.On the basis of quantifying the risk probability,the analytic hierarchy process is used to determine the importance weight of basic events.The combination of the two is used to analyze the risk of the cascade hydropower station,and the risk occurrence probability of cascade hydropower station during joint operation peri-od is calculated.The results show that the probability of risk occurrence during the joint operation period of cascade hy-dropower station is 4.22×10-3.According to the Guidelines for the Safety Evaluation of Hydropower Station Dam Oper-ation,the risk level is high,and the corresponding measures should be reasonably formulated to strengthen risk preven-tion and reduce risk losses.This study provides a basis for the formulation of risk prevention and control measures and risk management of cascade hydropower stations.
万方数据
维普
