Impact of Sea Level Rise on Design High Tide Level in Shanghai Coast
To research the impact of sea level rise on the design high tide level along the coast of Shanghai,seven typ-ical tidal stations,including Shidongkou,Wusong,Jinshanzui,and Luchaogang,were selected.Based on the sea level rise rate and historical sequence length,P-Ⅲ parameters were adjusted.This paper estimated the design high tide level changes of 7 tidal stations under three temperature rise scenarios for the next 70 years,with a 100 a to 1 000 a return pe-riod,and evaluated the seawall defense capability.The results show that the rate of sea level rise is significantly correla-ted with the increase of design tidal level.As of 2035,the design high tide level is expected to rise by 8-12 cm compared to the current situation,and the design return period of the seawall is reduced to once every 100-130 years;As of 2050,the design high tide level is expected to rise by 18-26 cm compared to the current situation,and the design return period of the seawall will be reduced to a return period of 50-80 years.As of 2100,the design high tide level is expected to rise by 50-91 cm compared to the current situation,and the design return period of the seawall will be reduced to a return pe-riod of 5-12 years.The research results can provide technical support for Shanghai to deal with climate change,strength-en flood control and tide blocking capabilities,and continuously improve the overall resilience of mega cities.
万方数据
维普
