To research the impact of sea level rise on the design high tide level along the coast of Shanghai,seven typ-ical tidal stations,including Shidongkou,Wusong,Jinshanzui,and Luchaogang,were selected.Based on the sea level rise rate and historical sequence length,P-Ⅲ parameters were adjusted.This paper estimated the design high tide level changes of 7 tidal stations under three temperature rise scenarios for the next 70 years,with a 100 a to 1 000 a return pe-riod,and evaluated the seawall defense capability.The results show that the rate of sea level rise is significantly correla-ted with the increase of design tidal level.As of 2035,the design high tide level is expected to rise by 8-12 cm compared to the current situation,and the design return period of the seawall is reduced to once every 100-130 years;As of 2050,the design high tide level is expected to rise by 18-26 cm compared to the current situation,and the design return period of the seawall will be reduced to a return period of 50-80 years.As of 2100,the design high tide level is expected to rise by 50-91 cm compared to the current situation,and the design return period of the seawall will be reduced to a return pe-riod of 5-12 years.The research results can provide technical support for Shanghai to deal with climate change,strength-en flood control and tide blocking capabilities,and continuously improve the overall resilience of mega cities.
维普
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