Study on Risk Transmission Mechanism of Chain Dam Break in Cascade Reservoir Based on System Dynamics
The transmission of chain dam break risk is the key problem of cascade reservoir group risk analysis.A system dynamic model of cascade reservoir risk transmission was established to reveal the evolution law and risk trans-mission mechanism of chain dam break events.In addition,based on flood correlation analysis,a quantitative risk trans-mission model of cascade reservoir was proposed to comprehensively and quickly evaluate the flood control capacity and risk transmission effect of reservoir.Finally,the applicability and rationality of this study were illustrated by three-stage cascaded reservoirs in Dadu River Basin.The results show that the system dynamics model can describe the feedback mechanism of risk conduction in time and space.The weak engineering has the highest risk transmission coefficient and the lowest risk bearing capacity.Risk bearing and blocking capacity are positively correlated with flood control and dis-charge capacity of reservoir.The intersectional flood superposition increases the risk transmission coefficient,amplifies the risk transmission,and increases the probability of chain dam break.
cascade reservoirchain dam breakrisk transmissionsystem dynamicsquantitative model
万方数据
维普
