Track forecast deviation and thinking of Typhoon Chaba(2203)
The main characteristics and forecast difficulties of Typhoon Chaba(2203)are analyzed and studied,and the main conclusions are as follows.Chaba is the first typhoon to make landfall in China in 2022.The typhoon lands in South China and weakens,and then its remnants continue to move northward and affect Central China,East China,North China,and Northeast China together with the westerly trough.The accumulated rainfall is large and the wind is strong.There are several tornadoes around the typhoon.There are three main difficulties in forecasting.First,the problem of accurate positioning of weak typhoons is obvious,and the introduction of new satellite products can improve the positioning accuracy.Second,the track deviation of the 72-h forecast is mainly caused by the models'inaccurate forecast of key systems,such as the east one of binary typhoons,continental high,South Asia high,and westerly jet.Third,the continuous adjustment of water vapor channel and high-level outflow conditions requires special attention in the prediction of the typhoon's long-term maintenance after landing(including the weakened residual vortex).
Typhoon Chabaadjustment of track predictionforecast difficultypositioning of weak typhoonlong-term maintenance
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