哈萨克斯坦东北部310年来初夏温度变化的树轮记录
Early Summer Temperature History in Northeastern Kazakhstan during the Last 310 Years Recorded by Tree Rings
尚华明 1魏文寿 2袁玉江 2喻树龙 2张同文 2张瑞波2
作者信息
- 1. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002;中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆树木年轮生态实验室,中国气象局树轮年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002
- 2. 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆树木年轮生态实验室,中国气象局树轮年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐,830002
- 折叠
摘要
在哈萨克斯坦东北部的阿尔泰山南坡,位于森林上限的西伯利亚落叶松的树轮宽度对生长季初期温度敏感,且在近年来气候变暖的背景下对温度的响应较为稳定,可以作为该区域温度变化的良好替代材料.利用森林上限区的树轮资料,从树轮宽度中提取初夏温度信息,建立了树轮宽度年表与卡通卡拉盖气象站6月平均温度的转换方程,重建了这一区域310年来的初夏温度变化历史,重建方程的方差解释量达到42.7％.由于校准期较长,利用独立检验方法对重建方程进行检验,各项检验的参数表明重建方程是稳定可靠的.重建序列与相邻的中国阿勒泰地区西部和阿尔泰山北坡树轮反映的温度变化序列的冷暖阶段是一致的,其中19世纪的温度波动较为明显,持续时间最长的冷期(1842-1871年)和暖期(1872-1906年)都出现在这个阶段.重建温度序列存在11a左右的周期,与太阳活动的周期一致.
Abstract
At the south slope of Altai Mountains, northeastern Kazakhstan, the tree ring width from the upper tree-line was sensitive to the temperature at the early stage of its growth season. Under the climate warming background, tree ring width stably responded to temperature, hence, tree ring width was the prior proxy of past temperature change in this area. By using tree ring samples, this paper extracted the climatic information from tree ring width, established the transfer function between tree ring width chronology and mean June temperature, reconstructed the temperature history during the last 310 years from Katongkalgai weather station at northeastern Kazakhstan. The explained variance of the transfer function was 42. 7% . Because the instrumental data was long, the independent test was applied for the transfer function, and all the test parameters indicated that the function was stable and reliable. The reconstructed mean June temperature series in this paper was coincident with the neighboring area such as west Altai in China and north slopes of Altai Mountains. The temperature fluctuation in 19th century was most obvious; the longest warm and cold period happened at this stage. Spectral analysis of the reconstructed series indicated that the cycle of 11 years was significant. This cycle was also coincided with the cycle of solar activity. The common cycle of reconstructed temperature and solar activity also proved that the tree ring width change synchronized with temperature and solar activity.
关键词
哈萨克斯坦/阿尔泰山/西伯利亚落叶松/树木年轮/温度Key words
Kazakhstan/Altai Mountains\Larix sibirica Ledeb./tree ring/temperature引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(40975056)
国家自然科学基金(41071072)
新疆维吾尔自治区重点实验室开放课题(XJYS0911-2009-02)
科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806011)
公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(IDM200801)
出版年
2011
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据